#238 – Sam Winter-Levy and Nikita Lalwani on how AGI won't end mutually assured destruction (probably)

#238 – Sam Winter-Levy and Nikita Lalwani on how AGI won't end mutually assured destruction (probably)

From 80,000 Hours Podcast by The 80,000 Hours team

March 10, 2026 · 1h 11m

About this episode

The episode discusses the implications of AI on nuclear deterrence and the potential dangers it poses in geopolitics.

How AI interacts with nuclear deterrence may be the single most important question in geopolitics — one that may define the stakes of today’s AI race. Nuclear deterrence rests on a state’s capacity to respond to a nuclear attack with a devastating nuclear strike of its own. But some theorists think that sophisticated AI could eliminate this capability — for example, by locating and destroying all of an adversary’s nuclear weapons simultaneously, by disabling command-and-control networks, or by enhancing missile defence systems. If they are right, whichever country got those capabilities first could wield unprecedented coercive power. Today’s guests — Nikita Lalwani and Sam Winter-Levy of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — assess how advances in AI might threaten nuclear deterrence: Would AI be able to locate nuclear submarines hiding in a vast, opaque ocean? Would road-mobile launchers still be able to hide in tunnels and under netting? Would missile defence become so accurate that the United States could be protected under something like Israel’s Iron Dome? Can we imagine an AI cybersecurity breakthrough that would allow countries to infiltrate their rivals’…

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