#240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war

#240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war

From 80,000 Hours Podcast by The 80,000 Hours team

March 24, 2026 · 1h 12m

About this episode

Samuel Charap discusses the potential risks of a ceasefire in Ukraine and its implications for European security.

Many people believe a ceasefire in Ukraine will leave Europe safer. But today's guest lays out how a deal could potentially generate insidious new risks — leaving us in a situation that's equally dangerous, just in different ways. That’s the counterintuitive argument from Samuel Charap , Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at RAND. He’s not worried about a Russian blitzkrieg on Estonia. He forecasts instead a fragile peace that breaks down and drags in European neighbours; instability in Belarus prompting Russian intervention; hybrid sabotage operations that escalate through tit-for-tat responses. Samuel’s case isn’t that peace is bad, but that the Ukraine conflict has remilitarised Europe, made Russia more resentful, and collapsed diplomatic relations between the two. That’s a postwar environment primed for the kind of miscalculation that starts unintended wars. What he prescribes isn’t a full peace treaty; it’s a negotiated settlement that stops the killing and begins a longer negotiation that gives neither side exactly what it wants, but just enough to deter renewed aggression. Both sides stop dying and the flames of war fizzle — hopefully. None of this is clean…

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