Why Prediction Markets Are Turning Everything Into a Bet

Why Prediction Markets Are Turning Everything Into a Bet

From Channels with Peter Kafka by Vox Media Podcast Network

March 25, 2026 · 46 min

About this episode

The episode discusses the rise of prediction markets and their implications in various sectors, featuring insights from WIRED's Kate Knibbs.

Prediction markets are suddenly everywhere: in sports, in politics, in the media business — and, depending on who you ask, they’re either a useful forecasting tool or just gambling with better branding. So what changed? And why is the federal government sounding more like a booster than a regulator? WIRED’s Kate Knibbs joins me to explain why she made prediction markets her beat, how Kalshi and Polymarket went mainstream, why Trump-world is so friendly to them, why some states are trying to stop them, and what happens when more and more of public life gets turned into a bet. We also talk about media companies cutting deals with prediction-market firms, the blurry rules around insider trading, and why this story is really about the casino-fication of everything. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

People in this episode

Host: Peter Kafka

Guest: Kate Knibbs

Topics covered

  • prediction markets
  • forecasting tools
  • gambling
  • media business
  • politics
  • sports

Keywords

  • prediction markets
  • forecasting
  • gambling
  • media
  • politics
  • Kalshi
  • Polymarket
  • Trump
  • insider trading

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: WIRED, Kalshi, Polymarket, Vox Media Podcast Network

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