Why Prediction Markets Are Turning Everything Into a Bet
About this episode
The episode discusses the rise of prediction markets and their implications in various sectors, featuring insights from WIRED's Kate Knibbs.
Prediction markets are suddenly everywhere: in sports, in politics, in the media business — and, depending on who you ask, they’re either a useful forecasting tool or just gambling with better branding. So what changed? And why is the federal government sounding more like a booster than a regulator? WIRED’s Kate Knibbs joins me to explain why she made prediction markets her beat, how Kalshi and Polymarket went mainstream, why Trump-world is so friendly to them, why some states are trying to stop them, and what happens when more and more of public life gets turned into a bet. We also talk about media companies cutting deals with prediction-market firms, the blurry rules around insider trading, and why this story is really about the casino-fication of everything. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
People in this episode
Host: Peter Kafka
Guest: Kate Knibbs
Topics covered
- prediction markets
- forecasting tools
- gambling
- media business
- politics
- sports
Keywords
- prediction markets
- forecasting
- gambling
- media
- politics
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- Trump
- insider trading
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: WIRED, Kalshi, Polymarket, Vox Media Podcast Network
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