Jesse Felder: This is the Type of Setup You Look For as an Investor
About this episode
Jesse Felder discusses the current state of oil and gold markets, highlighting investment opportunities amidst economic shifts.
Recorded on: June 29, 2026 Jesse Felder highlights a striking divergence in oil markets: physical inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have plunged to multi-decade lows while demand hits records, yet institutional investors hold the most bearish positioning ever. This contrarian setup is amplified by the AI frenzy, which has drained interest from energy—despite the sector’s strong five-year performance. Insider buying in exploration and production (E&P) companies and an absence of commercial hedging signal confidence in sustainably higher prices. Felder argues that a decade of underinvestment due to capital flowing elsewhere, first to shale, then to ESG, now to AI has constrained supply, laying the groundwork for an oil supercycle targeting $120/barrel. Turning to gold, Felder notes that a needed correction has brought prices back toward levels suggested by real rates, with speculative froth easing. A pivot from the Federal Reserve toward rate cuts—should economic weakness emerge—could reignite a bull run. He warns that new Fed Chair Warsh’s attempt to walk back dovish policies and market handholding may be thwarted by the economy’s immense dependence on…
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