Competent Man Podcast

Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management, argues that the US economy is trapped in a self-perpetuating doom loop driven by massive deficits and rising interest rates, which he believes will inevitably lead to a sovereign debt crisis or hyperinflation. He explains that as the Federal Reserve raises rates to combat persistent inflation, the government's interest expense balloons—potentially consuming half or all of tax revenue within years—forcing even larger deficits that fuel more inflation.Schiff contends the Fed is far behind the curve, with real rates falling as inflation accelerates, and that any further hikes will only worsen the fiscal situation. He highlights a brewing disaster in the housing and banking sectors, where trillions in unrealized losses on low-yielding mortgages threaten lender solvency, a situation he views as far worse than the 2008 crisis. This, combined with a reverse wealth effect as home prices eventually reset lower, will act as a severe headwind for the economy.Schiff predicts Democrats will win the midterms and pass even larger deficits, accelerating the fiscal and inflationary problems.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:37 - Sovereign Debt Crisis Risks00:03:25 - Inflation and Rate Hikes00:08:04 - Market Reactions to Data00:09:34 - Stock Market Breadth Concerns00:11:50 - Mortgage Market Crisis00:22:10 - Housing Wealth Effect Reversal00:26:16 - Fannie Freddie Privatization00:31:04 - Government Deficits and Taxes00:42:24 - Gold Silver Investment Opportunities00:49:20 - AI Impacts and Outlook00:59:28 - Midterms & Concluding ThoughtsGuest:Peter Schiff — CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and Chairman of Schiff GoldPeter Schiff is an honorary chairman of SchiffGold, founder of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and host of The Peter Schiff Show. Peter is an economic forecaster and investment advisor influenced by the free-market Austrian School of economics. He is one of the few forecasters who accurately and publicly predicted the 2007 housing market collapse and subsequent 2008 financial crisis. His latest best-selling book, The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy - How to Save Yourself and Your Country, warns that the 2008 crisis was just the prelude to a larger sovereign debt crisis in the United States that may lead to a collapse of the US dollar. Peter recommends long-term investment in foreign markets with sound fiscal policies, as well as global commodities including buying gold, silver and other physical precious metals.Podcast Website Website X YouTube 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, joins Tom Bodrovics to discuss his increasingly cautious market outlook. Pento’s model currently sits in sectors three and four, indicating stasis or slight reflation, but he anticipates a shift to sectors one and two by 2027. He has neutralized his portfolio for the first time since December 2021, reflecting his bePento argues that the Federal Reserve is raising short-term rates while long-term rates are also rising, creating pressure on a "triumvirate of bubbles"—credit, real estate, and equities. He attributes this to inflation remaining above target for over five years, foreign creditors abandoning US Treasuries in favor of gold, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade. The US savings rate is near historic lows, limiting demand for government debt while deficits remain massive. He warns that AI-related debt issuance, potentially a trillion dollars this year, is fueling inflation and competing with Treasuries for scarce savings. He dismisses the idea that renewed quantitative easing could solve the problem, calling such measures palliative and likely to trigger a stagflationary environment.Pento predicts the next recession will cause deficits to balloon from two trillion to four-to-six trillion dollars annually, with the Fed unable to lower rates effectively without igniting double-digit inflation. He notes that total non-financial business debt, equity market capitalization relative to GDP, and housing affordability are all at or near record extremes, making the coming downturn potentially severe. Pento emphasizes that the Fed’s traditional tools—lowering rates and expanding its balance sheet—will not work this time because investors now understand the inflationary consequences. He concludes that the US is trapped by overfinancialization and fiscal irresponsibility, with no easy exit from the coming credit crisis.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:27 - Current Market Model Position00:04:34 - AI Debt Bubble Pressures00:05:51 - Treasury Rate Competition00:10:11 - Foreign Creditors Shift to Gold00:11:52 - Japan Carry Trade Issues00:13:42 - Energy Costs and Japan00:18:42 - Fed and Treasury Tools00:21:00 - Real Estate and Wealth Effects00:30:00 - Concluding ThoughtsGuest:Michael Pento — President and Founder of Pento Portfolio StrategiesMichael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network.Website E-Mail X 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

Porter Stansberry warns that the United States is on an irreversible path toward a major fiscal and societal crisis by 2029, drawing a historical parallel to the downfall of the Knights Templar. He explains that when a sovereign becomes insolvent, it inevitably turns on its creditors, and the largest creditor to the U.S. government is not bondholders but the recipients of unfunded Social Security promises. The root of this decay, he argues, is the abandonment of the gold standard, which has enabled unchecked money printing and triggered the Cantillon effect—where newly created currency flows first to the wealthy and connected, systematically eroding the middle class and destroying the single-income household. This monetary debasement has fueled profound cultural and moral collapse, manifesting in diseases of desperation, addiction, and a loss of faith in American institutions.Stansberry identifies the legal doctrine of "disparate impact" as the American version of Marxism, arguing it has corrupted everything from education and law enforcement to banking, leading to urban decay and institutional inefficiency. He contends that the banking system is now acutely vulnerable due to massive unrecognized losses on bond portfolios, a situation made untenable by the rise of AI, which will soon allow depositors to effortlessly seek market-based yields, triggering bank runs. To survive the coming reset, Stansberry outlines tiered investment strategies. For the very wealthy, he recommends buying deeply undervalued timberland.For most investors, he advocates a "permanent portfolio" that replaces traditional bonds with property and casualty insurance stocks to hedge against inflation and volatility. For those still accumulating wealth, he details a "honeycomb" portfolio—a concentrated, seven-sector strategy centered on gold and enhanced with modest leverage to maximize returns while minimizing risk. He concludes that the window to prepare is closing, urging immediate action before the crisis becomes obvious to everyone.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:54 - Friday the 13th Origins00:02:03 - Social Security Crisis Warning00:06:53 - Cantillon Effect Explained00:07:53 - Disparate Impact Doctrine00:22:06 - Banking System Risks00:28:19 - AI Transforming Banking00:33:14 - Permanent Portfolio Strategy00:41:26 - Honeycomb Portfolio Approach00:44:10 - Being Pro-Active00:57:20 - Concluding ThoughtsGuest Links:X: https://x.com/porterstansbWebsite: https://www.porterstansberry.com/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/porterstansberry/Substack: https://substack.com/@porterstansberryPorter Stansberry is one of the most recognized voices in independent financial publishing over the past quarter century. He built Stansberry Research from a single newsletter into a company that went public at a $3 billion valuation, then walked away to start over on his own terms.In 1999, Porter Stansberry launched what would become Stansberry Research with a borrowed laptop and $36,000 in seed financing from publisher Bill Bonner. The operation began in a modest Baltimore apartment, where he wrote his first newsletter, initially called the Pirate Investor, and built a subscriber base through the quality and directness of the analysis itself.The model was simple in concept and difficult in execution: deliver genuinely useful investment research to individual investors who had no access to the same quality of analysis available to institutional clients. That founding principle shaped everything that followed.Before starting his own firm, Porter had already established a foothold in financial publishing by becoming the first American editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the world's oldest English-language financial newsletter. The role gave him a grounding in the tradition of long-form, independent financial analysis, a tradition he would spend the next two decades expanding.Porter Stansberry departed from MarketWise in 2020 and founded Porter & Co. in April of that year. He left the institutional structure of a public company behind and returned to the model he had started with: a small, editorially-independent team producing research without compliance committees, corporate mandates, or outside investors determining the agenda.Guest:Porter Stansberry — Founder of MarketWise, OneBlade, and Porter & Co.Porter Stansberry is one of the most recognized voices in independent financial publishing over the past quarter century. He built Stansberry Research from a single newsletter into a company that went public at a $3 billion valuation, then walked away to start over on his own terms.In 1999, Porter Stansberry launched what would become Stansberry Research with a borrowed laptop and $36,000 in seed financing from publisher Bill Bonner. The operation began in a modest Baltimore apartment, where he wrote his first newsletter, initially called the Pirate Investor, and built a subscriber base through the quality and directness of the analysis itself.The model was simple in concept and difficult in execution: deliver genuinely useful investment research to individual investors who had no access to the same quality of analysis available to institutional clients. That founding principle shaped everything that followed.Before starting his own firm, Porter had already established a foothold in financial publishing by becoming the first American editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the world's oldest English-language financial newsletter. The role gave him a grounding in the tradition of long-form, independent financial analysis, a tradition he would spend the next two decades expanding.Porter Stansberry departed from MarketWise in 2020 and founded Porter & Co. in April of that year. He left the institutional structure of a public company behind and returned to the model he had started with: a small, editorially-independent team producing research without compliance committees, corporate mandates, or outside investors determining the agenda.X Website Instagram Substack 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

In this discussion, global forecaster David Murrin outlines his view that conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Pacific are not isolated but a coordinated confrontation between democracies and an axis of autocracy led by China. He traces China's rise to a multi-decade strategy developed after the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, which involved seducing the West into moving its industrial base to China. This was coupled with systematic intellectual property theft and a military buildup, including island bases and anti-ship ballistic missiles designed to push U.S. aircraft carriers beyond their effective combat range. This area-denial bubble, now augmented by hypersonic weapons, has eroded decades of American military dominance. Iran has adopted similar tactics, using resilient missile architecture and cheap drones to challenge U.S. forces and allies, while depleting Western interceptor stockpiles that would be critical in a Pacific conflict.Murrin argues that higher defense budgets alone are insufficient; the West must prioritize innovation and adaptability over rigid systems. He points to Ukraine as a model of rapid adaptation, where lessons are immediately applied, unlike the slow-moving Western military-industrial complex. However, he warns that cognitive warfare, particularly from Russia, has induced societal paralysis in Western nations, leading to delayed responses and a dangerous collective delusion. This has left countries like the UK with degraded militaries and insufficient political will to rearm, making NATO vulnerable to mass-produced drone threats from a newly industrialized Russia.Economically, Murrin sees the world trapped in a hegemonic war cycle peaking around 2030, driving sustained inflation, higher commodity prices, and pressure on bond markets. He advises avoiding bonds and dollar-denominated assets, favoring precious metals as a safe haven. Despite the dire outlook, Murrin emphasizes building resilience, trusted sources of information, and hope, believing that free societies can ultimately prevail if they confront reality and demand protection from their governments.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:47 - China's Coordinated Strategy00:05:09 - Dismantling US Military Dominance00:09:11 - Innovation Over Defense Budgets00:11:49 - Trump's Questioned Motivations00:14:05 - UK Defense Negligence Exposed00:17:01 - Gray War and Cognitive Warfare00:19:44 - Cognitive Warfare on Populations00:22:45 - Ukraine Visit and Adaptability00:29:18 - Market and Economic Outlook00:35:24 - Financial Reset and Multipolar World00:37:45 - Investment Technologies Discussed00:40:50 - Resilience and Mindset Advice00:46:54 - Concluding ThoughtsGuest:David Murrin — Global Forecaster and AuthorDavid Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today's turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.X Website Instagram 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media, argues that a sustained decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar is inevitable due to the staggering $40 trillion in on-balance-sheet and $120 trillion in off-balance-sheet liabilities. He explains that while short-term interest rate hikes may temporarily strengthen the dollar, the political class will ultimately choose to inflate away these obligations rather than default, setting the stage for a replay of the 1970s inflationary era. In this environment, he positions physical gold as the primary savings defense, with high-quality gold stocks like Franco-Nevada and Agnico Eagle serving as a leveraged investment layer that historically outperforms bullion. He warns that speculative junior mining stocks require significant work, expertise, and psychological tolerance for volatility.The discussion extends to the broader resource sector, where decades of underinvestment have created structural supply deficits in commodities like copper and uranium. Rule notes that these deficits cannot be quickly resolved, making price rationing inevitable. For uranium specifically, he highlights strong fundamentals driven by Japanese reactor restarts and long-term contracting, though he cautions that the market’s progress is often misaligned with speculators’ short-term expectations.Regarding silver, he emphasizes that its major price moves are historically led by generalist investor inflows following gold’s momentum, rather than industrial demand alone. He also sees contrarian value in Canadian oil and gas, citing geopolitical tensions and fiscal necessity. Rule concludes by advising investors to distinguish between savings, investment, and speculation, urging them to limit speculative holdings to the number of hours they can dedicate to diligent research.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:15 - Dollar Value and Washington00:05:23 - Deflation Versus Inflation Forces00:08:13 - Gold Commodities and Resources00:10:50 - Gold Stocks in 1970s00:13:20 - Interest Rates Impact on Gold00:16:48 - Geopolitics and Energy Security00:21:47 - Uranium Market Dynamics00:27:06 - Uranium Production Deficit00:34:08 - Silver Supply Realities00:39:51 - Canadian Oil and Gas00:42:40 - Investing in Resource Companies00:52:36 - Resource Bull Market Outlook00:55:05 - Wrap UpGuest:Rick Rule — Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment MediaRick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.X Website YouTube Classroom Battle Bank 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

Graham Summers, President and Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research, discussed the complex state of the bond market, noting the historic shift as the 40-year bull market in bonds ended in 2022. He analyzed Treasury Secretary Bessent’s recent increase in bond buybacks to $6 billion per auction, interpreting it primarily as a verbal intervention to maintain stability and signal support rather than a massive quantitative easing program.Summers stressed that while rising yields and national debt exceeding 100% of GDP are noteworthy, the situation remains orderly and not yet resembling a debt crisis. The conversation explored the application of a "wartime economy" framework to understand current fiscal and monetary policy. The intense U.S.-China AI arms race is driving massive deficits and direct government investment in sectors like critical minerals and domestic production, including gold and uranium.Summers highlighted the administration’s unprecedented moves, such as designating gold as a critical mineral and the Treasury Secretary explicitly discussing gold’s role in sanctions and as a strategic monetary asset. He argued this signals a fundamental shift where hard assets are regaining strategic and economic relevance after decades of being sidelined.On inflation, Summers pointed to volatile oil prices, which the administration has proven capable of influencing through strategic statements. He cautioned that sustained high energy costs could eventually feed through to data, but the current inflationary picture is not as acute as the 2021-2022 period. When assessing market risks, he advised focusing on leading indicators like high-yield credit, market breadth, and the price action of the most heavily weighted stocks, noting none currently point to an imminent disorderly crash.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:33 - Bond Market and Treasury Buybacks00:02:20 - End of Bond Bull Market00:05:46 - Treasury Interventions and Signals00:09:35 - Debt Structure and Fed Changes00:15:05 - Global Yields and US Dominance00:17:18 - Wartime Economy and AI Race00:22:06 - Debt to GDP Analysis00:27:30 - COVID Liquidity and Announcements00:29:38 - Oil Prices and Inflation00:35:30 - Gold as Critical Mineral00:41:16 - Uranium and Critical MineralsGuest:Graham Summers — President and Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital ResearchGraham Summers, MBA is a world-renowned expert in central bank policy and its impact on the financial markets. With over 20 years of experience in market analysis and investment strategy, Graham has personally analyzed over 1,000 businesses and countless investment opportunities. His investment strategies encompass six different asset classes ranging from emerging markets to currencies to real estate . Together, his work has translated to unparalleled capital gains, with his clients outperforming the markets during some of the most volatile periods in capitalism.A best-selling author and acclaimed communicator, Graham’s cutting-edge investment and economic insights have been featured in dozens of media outlets around the world including CNN Money, Fox Business, Rolling Stone Magazine, Crain’s New York Business, MoneyTalk Radio, and The Huffington Post among many others. Graham earned his MBA from the prestigious Fuqua School of Business at Duke University.X Website Book 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.