Competent Man Podcast

Chase Taylor, global macro strategist at Pinecone Macro, analyzed the recent Treasury bond market intervention, characterizing it as an unforced error that inadvertently signaled a shift toward yield curve control. The initial modest buyback program quickly escalated into a commitment to use the Treasury General Account to cap long-term yields, undermining the Federal Reserve’s earlier stance and damaging joint credibility. This intervention, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, has intensified inflationary pressures. Taylor highlighted diesel prices as a critical driver, with inventories at 1996 lows and high crack spreads feeding into core inflation through transportation costs. He also warned of El Niño’s potential to disrupt global agriculture, particularly sugar, coffee, and cocoa, adding another layer of price pressure.On geopolitics, Taylor argued that economic sanctions against Iran are unlikely to force surrender, as the country has long adapted to such measures through smuggling and alternative trade networks. He noted Iran’s escalation dominance, meaning it can retaliate in ways that inflict greater economic pain on the US, such as disrupting energy infrastructure. This dynamic could accelerate capital outflows and eventually lead to capital controls, especially if inflation remains sticky. In this environment, gold emerges as a clear beneficiary, repricing higher as the Treasury’s actions signal a willingness to inflate away debt. Despite Western investor apathy, gold’s monetary properties make it a compelling hedge.Taylor also discussed structural weaknesses in US manufacturing and defense, emphasizing the loss of industrial capacity and the politicization of technology, which hampers innovation. He advocated for a disciplined, probabilistic approach to investing, stressing risk management, self-awareness, and the importance of studying cognitive biases. He recommended diversifying internationally and maintaining a rational, non-tribal mindset to navigate the complex macro landscape.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:54 - Bond Market Intervention00:04:27 - Escalation Traps in Markets00:10:50 - Inflation Channels and El Nino00:20:35 - Diesel and Energy Inflation00:30:20 - SPR and Jet Fuel Issues00:36:32 - Gold and Precious Metals00:47:13 - Iran Sanctions Path Forward01:00:20 - Missile Limitations and Ukraine01:11:27 - Technology and AI Future01:17:39 - Thinking and Biases01:26:03 - Trading Discipline and Risk01:35:30 - Concluding ThoughtsGuest:Chase Taylor — Global Macro Strategist and Editor at Pinecone MacroChase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. He recently became Head of Research at Bullwark Capital Management. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product.Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion.Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a distinctive macro framework. He combines technical analysis, fundamental changes, and the power of narratives and reflexivity to uncover asymmetric investments.Substack X Website Website iPencil 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

Recorded on: August 19, 2026Your host, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the market sniper himself Francis Hunt to the show. Francis Hunt is the Renegade Trader, Analyst, and the Founder of The Market Sniper. The discussion centers on a dramatic gold price surge and the underlying debt market distress. Hunt explains that the Federal Reserve is cornered, unable to maneuver as major holders like Japan face a “Hotel California” scenario with U.S. Treasuries unable to sell without triggering a crash, forced instead into repurchase agreements. This debt debasement, he argues, is a Western malaise, with the U.S. as the hegemon suffering most.The crisis is not isolated; the UK gilt market has already seen intervention, and similar pressures are building globally. In this environment, gold becomes the ultimate safe haven, with Hunt detailing a live trade that capitalized on a technical breakout, using his HVF methodology to enter long positions ahead of the news-driven rally. He emphasizes that gold moves first, with silver expected to outperform later once the gold-silver ratio completes a head-and-shoulders pattern.Turning to currencies, Hunt challenges the DXY’s relevance, showing that the dollar has been steadily devaluing against key trade partners like China and Mexico, which better reflect America’s structural deficit. He illustrates true inflation through a “Mars bar index,” demonstrating a 7.5% annual debasement over 31 years, far above official figures.The conversation also touches on soft commodities, with bullish technical setups in cocoa and coffee. Throughout, Hunt advocates for self-reliance, sound money, and using trading opportunities to build wealth and optionality, urging listeners to protect themselves from the coming debt reset by stacking physical precious metals and maintaining integrity and joy in the face of dystopian trends.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:30 - Gold Price Surge Analysis00:03:00 - Debt & Open Secrets00:06:30 - U.K. Malaise & Western Debt00:10:00 - Kospi and Downsides00:14:30 - Bonds and Finding Exits00:19:43 - Gold Silver Ratio Patterns00:25:20 - Dollar Devaluation Insights00:31:50 - Inflation Mars Bar Index00:39:49 - Embracing Life00:43:40 - Soft Commodities Outlook00:48:50 - Concluding ThoughtsGuest:Francis Hunt — Renegade Trader, Analyst, & Founder of The Market SniperFrancis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.X X Website YouTube 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors, maintains his highly bullish short-term outlook for equities, believing the stock market is in the final stages of a 44-year secular bull market that began in 1982. He anticipates a "melt-up" that could drive the S&P 500 to 10,000 and the NASDAQ to 36,000, representing a 30-35% gain compressed into just a few months. He attributes this potential surge not to new liquidity creation, but to existing capital being deployed as market momentum and shifting investor psychology overcome current cautious narratives.Hunter presents a contrarian view on interest rates, arguing that the recent rise in yields is a counter-trend move tied to oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions with Iran. He expects both oil and bond yields to roll over soon, with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially falling below 4% and eventually to 3%, providing a tailwind for stocks. He also sees gold and silver breaking out of their multi-month consolidation, setting the stage for a steep rally with targets of $7,000 for gold and $200 for silver, potentially topping alongside equities. This melt-up, however, sets the stage for a severe global bust.Hunter warns that the highly leveraged financial system will face a deflationary crash, potentially an 80% decline in equities, as the Federal Reserve, under Chair Warsh, will be slow to provide liquidity. This bust will force the Fed’s hand, leading to massive money printing that ignites the next cycle. That subsequent cycle, he predicts, will be inflationary and commodity-driven, with oil potentially soaring from a bust low of $30 to $500 a barrel, and precious metals seeing even larger gains over the following decade.He advises that the coming bust will present a generational buying opportunity in commodities.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:20 - Melt-Up Thesis Update00:04:19 - 44-Year Bull Market Drivers00:10:50 - Fed Policy and Liquidity00:16:47 - Liquidity Catalyst Discussion00:20:20 - Oil & Market Psychology00:27:29 - Inflation Fighting and Rates00:31:48 - U.S. War Economics00:35:23 - Melt-Up and Metals00:43:00 - Gold and S&P Ratio00:45:04 - Housing Market Correction00:48:10 - Investment Strategies and ETFs00:49:45 - Concluding ThoughtsGuest:David Hunter — Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro AdvisorsDavid is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.X 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

Luke Gromen, president of Forest For The Trees, discussed the challenging fiscal and monetary landscape facing the US once again with your host Tom Bodrovics. With national debt at $39.5 trillion and rising rates, Federal Reserve Chair Worsh confronts a constrained choice: allow treasury market dysfunction or weaken the dollar to manage mounting debt. Gromen argued that shifting issuance to the front end, including discussions around stablecoins, effectively cash-finances deficits, which is inherently inflationary. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent is embracing Hamiltonian economics—high tariffs, increased domestic production, and a neutral reserve asset—as echoed by other administration officials, though this shift demands massive deficits, higher taxes, and capital controls that threaten dollar reserve status.The conversation highlighted China’s strategic advantages, including its rapid EV adoption and ability to reduce oil demand during conflicts like the Iran situation, which benefits China by weakening Western economies and pushing global trade toward its systems. Gromen emphasized that US reindustrialization is a costly, decades-long endeavor made harder by a lost manufacturing base and skilled workforce. He pointed to gold as a key beneficiary, noting China’s moves to shift citizens into physical gold and regulatory signals from Western banks, all suggesting a coming significant price rise.For investors, Gromen recommended buying gold, selling long-dated treasuries, and considering electrical infrastructure equities, Japanese industrials, and gold miners, which offer strong cash flow yields and stand to benefit from prolonged geopolitical and economic restructuring.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:20 - Fed Choices on Inflation00:03:18 - Treasury Market Dysfunction Risks00:05:40 - Stablecoins Financing Deficits00:07:45 - US China Geopolitical Competition00:12:01 - Hamiltonian Economics Explained00:17:47 - Reshoring Costs and Feasibility00:23:28 - Iran Conflict Oil Impacts00:35:10 - China Strategic Benefits00:54:30 - China & Gold Trading01:02:00 - Equity Valuations01:05:20 - Bitcoin Thoughts01:09:00 - Action Items & Wrap-UpGuest:Luke Gromen — President and Founder of FFTTLuke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely-read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC's flagship weekly research summary piece ("Straight from the Source") for the firm's customers.In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC ("Forest for the Trees"), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.X Website 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.