About this episode

Tom Bodrovics interviews Josh Young about the implications of the Iranian conflict on global oil prices and energy markets.

Tom welcomes Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, to discuss the potential for a prolonged and sticky energy shock stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iranian conflict. He emphasizes the profound uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s duration, noting that neither military participants nor analysts can predict its timeline, which explains recent oil price volatility. Young challenges the prevailing view that global oil inventories of roughly 8.4 billion barrels are insufficient, arguing that the system can absorb a much larger drawdown—potentially another billion barrels or more—before facing severe physical shortages. He warns that as inventories deplete, the relationship between supply and price becomes nonlinear, with prices potentially accelerating from $125 to $200 or $250 per barrel if the strait remains closed for several more months. Young also addresses the resilience of energy infrastructure, observing that refineries and export facilities often return to operation faster than expected due to spare equipment and skilled labor, though LNG facilities face unique supply chain constraints. He notes that general equity markets have largely ignored the…

People in this episode

Host: Tom Bodrovics

Guest: Josh Young

Topics covered

• energy crisis
• oil prices
• Iran conflict
• market analysis
• investing
• supply chain

Keywords

• oil price volatility
• energy shock
• global oil inventories
• refinery operations
• energy investors

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Bison Interests

Places: Iran, Strait of Hormuz

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