Wrong numbers and why they survive, with Aaron Brown

About this episode

Patrick McKenzie and Aaron Brown discuss the persistence of bad statistics in institutions and the implications for accountability.

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Aaron Brown, author of Wrong Number, to examine why institutions that produce bad statistics face so few consequences for doing so. They trace the pattern from Aaron's 1975 summer job, where two credentialed experts confidently produced opposite conclusions about whether American tractors ran on diesel or gasoline, through decades of case studies involving the NTSB, COVID-era research, and the eviction moratorium. Along the way they discuss why financial markets are unusually good at error-correction, why "wanna bet?" functions as a tax on bullshit, and what it means that every senior economist Aaron told about the tractor problem simply laughed and topped it with a worse story. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/aaron-brown/ – Presenting Sponsors: Mercury & Granola Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com . If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost…

People in this episode

Host: Patrick McKenzie

Guest: Aaron Brown

Topics covered

• bad statistics
• error correction
• financial markets
• case studies
• institutional accountability

Keywords

• statistics
• financial markets
• error correction
• NTSB
• COVID research
• eviction moratorium
• institutional accountability

Sponsors

Mercury, Granola

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: NTSB

Books & works: Wrong Number

Places: American

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