About this episode

The episode discusses the current market conditions through various lenses, focusing on inflation, Fed policy, and options market behavior.

This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and options positioning. They examine whether midterm election volatility is underpriced, why inflation may be more demand-driven and persistent than headline data suggests, how the Fed's credibility has shifted under Kevin Warsh, and why options markets still look remarkably complacent. Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Topics covered Why ending Fed forward guidance could create more uncertainty around interest rate decisions Kevin Muir's case that midterm election volatility is unusually cheap Why seasonal volatility, low implied correlation and election risk may favor owning protection Aahan Menon on inflation breadth and why 70 to 80 percent of PCE components are above the Fed's 2 percent target Why demand-driven inflation may be stickier than supply-driven inflation How oil shocks can feed into core inflation and increase pressure on the Fed to hike Ben Hunt on the sudden collapse in the Fed credibility narrative and why gold has responded The four risks facing the Fed and…

People in this episode

Guests: Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba

Topics covered

• inflation
• market volatility
• Fed policy
• options positioning
• midterm elections
• demand-driven inflation

Keywords

• inflation data
• market risks
• Fed credibility
• options market
• midterm election volatility
• demand-driven inflation
• Nvidia options

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Last Call, Fed, Nvidia, PCE, Treasury

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