Excess Returns

Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors participate in powerful growth trends without making every holding a bet on the same outcome?In this episode of Excess Returns, Paisley joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss the risks beneath a resilient stock market, why tomorrow’s AI winners may differ from today’s leaders, and where she sees opportunities in power and infrastructure. They also explore private-company exposure inside ETFs, the role of thematic funds alongside a passive core, and why knowing what you own matters more than the number of holdings in your portfolio.Topics covered:What weak market breadth reveals beneath the headline indexesInterest rates, midterm elections, and the limits of historical market patternsPrediction markets as a source of information for investorsAI earnings expectations, debt financing, and the risk of slowing growthWhy bonds can provide income without reliably offsetting equity riskSmall-cap profitability and the importance of quality screensAI bottlenecks, photonics, power demand, and infrastructure investmentPrivate-company exposure in ETFs: liquidity, fees, and investment rationaleUsing thematic strategies as satellite positions around a passive corePortfolio concentration, investment humility, and staying flexibleLearn more about Tema ETFs.Follow Paisley Nardini on X.Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and the risks beneath the market04:37 Higher rates and the midterm election outlook09:17 What investors can learn from prediction markets13:36 AI growth expectations and changing market leadership19:50 Portfolio risk, bonds, and faster market drawdowns26:09 The AI bubble debate and small-cap quality33:45 Who benefits from AI beyond the hyperscalers?39:29 Energy infrastructure and putting AI to work45:54 Private-company exposure inside ETFs52:01 Where thematic investing fits in a portfolio58:32 Commodities, S&P 500 concentration, and humility Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market.In this month's Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to walk through the charts behind his cautious outlook. He explains how rising yields, oil prices, and a firmer dollar can affect the economy with a lag, why favorable seasonality may offer less support than investors expect, and how a slowdown in technology spending could challenge market leadership.We also explore the signals Jim sees in retail, housing, employment, and Walmart's relative performance. He closes with a possible path through a correction: slowing growth, lower inflation and yields, and a recovery that could give the bull market another run. His seven lagging sectors, the "Modest Seven," are central to that case.Topics covered:Why Jim Paulsen is cautious without making a recession or full bear-market callHis financial-conditions gauge and the risks of tightening into an already pressured economyHow restrictive conditions can weaken the November-to-April seasonal advantageThe delayed effects of bond yields, oil prices, and the dollar on economic surprisesTechnology spending relative to GDP and why slower growth could matter for tech stocksAI adoption, pricing, and the challenge of turning investment into profitsHow two decades of tech leadership may encourage complacency and crowded positioningThe divide between AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the "Modest Seven"What sector performance, bond yields, and the Walmart Recession Signal suggest about growthWhy rate cuts may initially accompany falling stocks, and how a correction could set up another advanceFollow Jim Paulsen:Paulsen PerspectivesJim Paulsen on XTimestamps:00:00 Jim Paulsen's outlook: correction risk without a bear-market call07:41 Restrictive conditions and the seasonal buying period14:12 Why the Fed and investors interpret conditions differently20:28 Oil, yields, the dollar, and their lagged effects26:00 Technology spending relative to the economy30:18 Can AI break the historical pattern?35:00 Tech's long leadership cycle and investor complacency42:00 AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the Modest Seven47:06 Market signals ahead of economic reports and bond pressure53:00 Bond competition and the Walmart Recession Signal58:11 How a correction could lead to another bull-market run Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much portfolio risk. Why do two investors who believe in letting winners compound also use 10% position limits?On this episode of 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Davis of Davis Funds and Robert Hagstrom of EquityCompass join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to discuss position sizing, selling mistakes, index concentration and the cost of growth. From Chris Davis’s experience selling Costco to the debate over who will capture AI’s economic benefits, they examine what it takes to hold a business through uncertainty without ignoring risk. Stay for Matt and Bogumil’s closing discussion of the lessons for investors.Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of AppleTopics covered:Why selling a genuinely great business can be an investor’s most expensive mistakeHow client behavior and fund constraints influence 10% position limitsChris Davis’s concerns about index concentration, momentum and future IPO incentivesRobert Hagstrom on trimming positions as the margin of safety shrinksThe bull-case pre-mortem: asking what could make selling today a mistakeWhat Chris Davis missed about Costco’s growth and ability to adaptWhy identical earnings growth can produce different shareholder returnsWhether AI spending builds durable pricing power or delivers more value to usersHow customer trust and restraint on margins can strengthen competitive advantagesBalance sheets, circular financing and the humility required to size a position⁠Chris Davis / Davis Funds⁠⁠Robert Hagstrom / EquityCompass⁠Chapters:00:00 Holding great businesses and the case for position limits06:47 Robert Hagstrom on concentration and client risk12:40 Index concentration, momentum and IPO incentives19:03 Trimming winners, margin of safety and the Costco lesson30:09 Valuation, return on capital and the cost of growth36:01 Is AI’s capital spending cycle temporary?40:10 AI pricing power: builders versus users45:35 Competitive advantage, margins and customer trust51:45 Balance sheets and circular AI financing55:53 Evaluating the AI investment cycle01:00:23 Matt and Bogumil’s takeaways: position sizing and AI01:10:25 Being an AI user versus an AI investor Learn more about the ⁠Excess Returns podcast network⁠.No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Tom Maher of Hilton Capital Management explains what is changing for small-cap stocks as earnings improve and AI spending reaches beyond big tech. After years of justified large-cap leadership, he sees reasons to revisit smaller companies while remaining selective about business quality, financing needs and valuation.In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the physical infrastructure behind AI, the case for diversifying beyond the largest stocks, and how Tom Maher finds businesses with improving fundamentals. We also discuss the effects of passive investing, opportunities in reshoring, and why knowing more about a company does not always lead to a better investment decision.Topics covered:Why stronger earnings helped justify large-cap leadership and what could change that balanceHow AI construction and equipment spending can benefit smaller industrial companiesWhy some small companies grow into large caps while others remain smallSelf-funding businesses versus companies that depend on outside capitalUnprofitable index constituents, private equity and the changing IPO marketHow interest rates affect financing costs, valuations and portfolio decisionsWhy ETF flows can move a stock independently of its business fundamentalsFinding improving businesses without mistaking a low valuation for an opportunityEvaluating management incentives, consistency and acquisition decisionsTom Maher's lessons on taking partial profits and reading unexpected stock-price reactionsLearn more about Hilton Capital Management.Chapters:00:00 Tom Maher's outlook: earnings, valuations and risk05:26 Small-cap earnings and AI infrastructure spending11:41 Defining small caps and why some companies stay small16:45 Active management and business quality22:03 Small-cap index quality and companies staying private27:15 Combining stock selection with a macro view32:58 Higher interest rates and portfolio decisions37:04 Passive investing and ETF-driven stock moves41:33 Finding stocks with improving fundamentals51:13 Valuation, consistency and management quality56:39 Reshoring and the industrial recovery01:01:14 Research, profit-taking and investor expectations Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network.No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Andy Constan, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman examine rising bond yields, options positioning and the inflation risks facing stocks. What happens if the rate relief traders are betting on never arrives?On this month's Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler connect three perspectives on the market. Andy Constan explains why stronger growth and debt supply can push yields higher without signaling a bond crisis. Brent Kochuba examines options flows that suggest traders are still leaning toward a rebound. Eric Pachman traces the path from refinery constraints and diesel shortages to freight costs and consumer inflation. Jack and Matt close with the investment implications of AI spending, efficiency and adoption.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠Topics covered:Andy Constan on growth, AI capital spending and the supply of debtWhy Andy Constan sees more attractive bonds without calling for a recessionHow higher yields can constrain stock returns even when growth remains strongBrent Kochuba on bond volatility, calm equities and bets on falling yieldsWhy Brent Kochuba is watching both upside surprises and downside riskEric Pachman on crack spreads and why cheaper crude may not mean cheaper fuelHow diesel prices can flow through freight bills into CPIEric Pachman on wage inequality and what national averages missAI spending, productivity and the difference between slower growth and contractionThe practical obstacles to bringing AI agents into everyday lifeChapters:00:00 Rising yields and the outlook for stocks05:26 Andy Constan: Growth, debt supply and higher yields12:01 Why bonds look more attractive after the selloff18:33 Brent Kochuba: Options flows and bets on rate relief23:21 Equity complacency and risks in both directions31:12 Eric Pachman: Diesel shortages, crack spreads and inflation40:06 Wage inequality and the limits of average inflation44:40 AI capital spending, productivity and investment returns50:34 AI adoption, automation and everyday obstaclesLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠https://excessreturns.co⁠No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

How much of your portfolio does a good investment idea deserve? Kris Abdelmessih of Moontower joins Matt Zeigler to explain why having an edge is only part of the decision: position size can determine whether favorable odds translate into long-term growth or damaging losses.Through a coin-flipping experiment and everyday examples, Kris makes the Kelly Criterion accessible without a complicated derivation. The conversation explores the difference between expected returns and compounded wealth, why growth-maximizing bets can still be uncomfortable, and how uncertain probabilities make a case for betting less. From portfolio decisions to insurance and extended warranties, the goal is to build better intuition about how much risk to take.Topics covered:How a favorable coin-flipping game exposed costly mistakes in bet sizingWhy maximizing the expected payoff of one bet differs from maximizing long-term compounded growthHow oversized bets can undermine an otherwise profitable opportunityThe Kelly Criterion's three inputs: probability of winning, probability of losing, and payoffWhy a constant percentage of your bankroll means changing the dollar amount after wins and lossesHow different payoffs change the appropriate size of a betApplying the framework to hypothetical self-insurance and extended-warranty decisionsWhy full Kelly can involve substantial drawdowns, and the tradeoffs of fractional KellyWorking backward from a position size to the odds needed to justify itAllowing for uncertainty in your estimates and preserving capital for future opportunitiesThe essay behind this conversation:After this post you will be sizing bets in your headhttps://www.panoptica.com/after-this-post-you-will-be-sizing-bets-in-your-head/Research discussed:Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coinhttps://arxiv.org/abs/1701.01427Kris Abdelmessih's Moontower newsletter:https://moontower.substack.com/Moontower:https://moontower.ai/Kris Abdelmessih on X:https://x.com/KrisAbdelmessihChapters:00:00 Position sizing and the favorable coin-flip experiment04:45 Why a good bet can produce bad outcomes13:49 The Kelly Criterion formula explained18:10 Adjusting your bankroll and accounting for the payoff23:03 Applying Kelly to a self-insurance decision30:25 Full Kelly, drawdowns, and reasons to bet less34:59 Working backward from bet size and evaluating warranties41:09 Volatility drag, uncertain odds, and the experiment's results46:09 How much capital does your edge deserve?Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jack Raines turned $6,000 into roughly $400,000 trading SPACs, then lost $157,000 in three minutes after taking a very different bet. The author of Young Money joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what that experience taught him about investing risk, the urge to chase more, and the time a growing portfolio can cost you.The conversation follows Jack Raines from SPAC warrants and market narratives to a broader question: how do you allocate money, time, and risk to build a life you actually want? They explore the limits of a trading edge, why cheap stocks can get cheaper, and how debt, career choices, and status shape the decisions investors make beyond their portfolios.Young Money: A Field Guide to Wealth and Purpose in Your Twentieshttps://amzn.to/4AtUsDoJack Raines' Young Money newsletterhttps://www.youngmoney.co/Jack Raines on Xhttps://twitter.com/Jack_RainesTopics covered:How Jack Raines grew his Roth IRA through SPAC warrants and pre-merger common shares, and why those positions carried different risks.Why an edge in one corner of the market did not translate into a successful concentrated earnings bet.How a million-dollar target and constant account checking changed Jack Raines' relationship with money and time.What SEC filings, Discord research, and market narratives contributed to his trading process.Why Jack Raines bought Figma after questioning the market's AI narrative and speaking with designers.Applying portfolio thinking to careers, creative projects, and opportunities that change with each stage of life.Weighing retirement saving against other opportunities, and why Jack Raines treats expensive debt as a constraint on taking risks.Escaping the "someday" trap while giving long-term venture investments time to develop.Combining steady income and index funds with independent bets, while treating status as a tool rather than a goal.Why Jack Raines believes investors learn about risk through experience, with stakes they can afford to recover from.Timestamps:00:00 Jack Raines on the lessons of losing money04:57 Inside the SPAC trades and the $157,000 loss15:16 Separating market hype from downside math22:18 Building a life with portfolio principles29:45 Retirement saving, trading obsession, and the cost of time36:56 Debt, freedom, and the trap of waiting for someday44:33 Venture investing: acting quickly and waiting patiently51:03 Using status without making it the goal56:08 The investing lesson experience has to teachLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio.Recorded September 16, 2026, before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.David Rosenberg on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/EconguyRosieRosenberg Researchhttps://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Topics covered:Why Rosenberg believes markets have priced in too much Fed tightening and Treasury bonds offer an opportunityWhy he views higher oil prices as a tax on consumers rather than evidence of sustained, broad-based inflationHow slowing wage growth, falling savings, and the stock market wealth effect shape consumer spendingHow Treasury issuance changes and potential post-election fiscal gridlock could support bondsWhy AI exposure extends beyond technology stocks into utilities, industrials, and other sectorsWhere he sees opportunities in healthcare, consumer staples, pipelines, European stocks, and AsiaHis model portfolio's allocation to equities, bonds, cash, and commoditiesHow gold, central bank buying, and a bearish dollar outlook fit his investment thesisWhy he is positioning for slower growth without making recession his base caseWhat working with portfolio managers taught him about cutting losses and separating conviction from stubbornnessTimestamps:00:00 Rosenberg's portfolio approach and the Treasury opportunity05:58 Why an oil shock can weaken consumer spending10:52 Jobs, wages, and the stock market wealth effect17:35 Fiscal stimulus, Treasury issuance, and the bond outlook22:53 AI concentration risk beyond technology stocks27:10 Why he owns European and Asian equities31:16 Inside his 50% stocks, 30% bonds model portfolio36:43 Betting against the inflation consensus42:41 Gold, central bank reserves, and a weaker dollar48:56 Recession watch and bear market risks for 202753:10 AI correlations and the risks of being fully invested58:27 Cutting losses and knowing when conviction becomes stubbornnessLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and what that means for stocks, bonds, and Federal Reserve policy. Using 27 charts, he examines stalled job creation, rising oil prices, growing reliance on debt to finance AI investment, and why he expects a sharper correction in technology than in the broader S&P 500.⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsTopics covered:Why strong S&P 500 earnings hide a widening divide between technology, energy, and the remaining seven sectors.Why low unemployment claims may offer false comfort when job creation has stalled.Jim's job market misery index and what it suggests about the case for Fed easing.How business investment and employment have broken their historical relationship.Why weak real disposable income, low savings, and higher oil prices threaten consumer spending.How fading economic momentum could push Treasury yields lower despite renewed inflation fears.Why a shrinking wall of worry could remove an important source of support for stocks.What growth stock leadership, household purchasing power, and ISM services data reveal about market risk.How debt-funded AI spending and widening credit spreads change the risks facing technology companies.Why extreme stock outperformance versus bonds could matter for portfolio allocation.The difference between rising profits per worker and sustainable economic productivity.Why Jim expects a tech bear market but a more moderate correction in the broader S&P 500.Timestamps:00:00 Why oil, rates, and tight policy worry Jim05:43 The three-way split hiding beneath strong earnings09:58 Why low jobless claims may be misleading16:18 When business investment stops creating jobs20:48 Can consumer spending outrun real income?26:01 How the wall of worry has supported stocks31:44 Investor complacency and a shift toward growth fears36:58 The disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street41:35 AI debt financing, credit spreads, and the case for bonds47:25 Investment per worker and the yield curve's earnings warning51:52 Profit productivity versus real economic productivity58:08 Why Jim expects a tech bear market and a broader correctionLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage-backed securities and how investors can rethink the fixed income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio.The conversation covers why traditional bond benchmarks may deliver too much interest rate risk for their yield, how ETFs expand access to securitized credit, and why the AI buildout could add to inflation rather than solve it.High-Conviction Views: The time for short-duration bondshttps://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/high-conviction-views-the-time-for-short-duration-bonds/Janus Henderson Investorshttps://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/Topics covered:Why deglobalization, fiscal spending and labor constraints could keep inflation and interest rates elevatedHow the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index concentrates interest rate risk and leaves out large parts of the bond marketHow AAA CLOs work, why their coupons float, and why they are different from cashWhy tight corporate credit spreads may offer insufficient compensation for the risks investors takeThe three jobs of fixed income: safety, income and insuranceHow duration determines whether rising rates can wipe out a bond portfolio's incomeWhy bond ETF discounts can reflect price discovery when underlying bonds are not tradingHow Treasury borrowing and AI hyperscaler debt issuance affect bond supply and relative valueWhy AI capital spending, electricity demand, labor shortages and wealth effects can create inflationHow to rebuild the bond allocation around securitized credit, agency mortgages and the risks in your equity portfolioTimestamps:00:00 Rethinking bonds after years of disappointing returns04:28 Why the forces behind the bond bull market have changed10:09 The hidden interest rate risk in the Aggregate Bond Index14:53 AAA CLO ETFs: Floating income, structure and drawdown risk20:44 Treasury fiscal risk and tight corporate credit spreads26:16 Moving beyond set-and-forget bond funds30:45 How duration can overwhelm your bond yield36:27 Bond ETF liquidity and price discovery during stress41:11 Treasury borrowing, AI debt and securitized bond supply46:00 How hyperscaler borrowing can create credit market dislocations50:29 Four reasons AI could increase inflation55:56 Rebuilding the 40% bond allocation in a 60/40 portfolio01:02:00 Municipal bonds, recession protection and balancing equity riskLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.