About this episode

David Mericle discusses the outlook for US monetary policy, inflation, and economic growth amid geopolitical tensions.

As a newly installed chairman takes the helm of the Federal Reserve, US monetary policy remains uncertain amid a soft inflation print and escalating tensions in the Middle East. David Mericle, chief US economist in Goldman Sachs Research, forecasts the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this year before cutting its policy rate in 2027. He also unpacks the factors driving US inflation, highlights the surprising resilience of the US labor market, and explains why he expects US GDP to expand around 2% this year.  Recorded on July 20, 2026. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or…

People in this episode

Guest: David Mericle

Topics covered

• US monetary policy
• inflation
• labor market
• GDP growth
• geopolitical tensions

Keywords

• Federal Reserve
• interest rates
• US economy
• inflation factors
• labor market resilience

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Goldman Sachs

Places: United States

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