The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta
From Forward Guidance by Blockworks
May 13, 2026 · 49 min
About this episode
Neil Dutta discusses the evolving economic landscape influenced by AI and the Federal Reserve's changing stance on inflation.
AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read. Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path. We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:54 The Real Inflation Story 06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold 08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken 12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks 14:58 The Consumer Strength Illusion 19:20 The K-Shaped Consumer Debate 22:30 The AI Capex Macro Risk 26:03 Inside Trade & Manufacturing Data 29:18 Is Manufacturing Really Booming? 36:43 Warsh Faces An Impossible Fed 45:41 Fed Volatility Vs White House Policy 48:14 Final Thoughts FOLLOW NEIL DUTTA › X/Twitter – https://x.com/RenMacLLC FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward. Guidance– https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions…
People in this episode
Host: Forward Guidance
Guest: Neil Dutta
Topics covered
- Federal Reserve
- inflation
- AI impact on economy
- consumer spending
- manufacturing data
- supply shocks
Keywords
- inflation
- labor market
- AI capital expenditure
- consumer spending
- manufacturing
- supply shocks
- economic volatility
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: Renaissance Macro, Forward Guidance, Blockworks
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