Forward Guidance

A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly? This week, we break down Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed's messaging. We also discuss the AI capex boom, the future of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, tightening liquidity, housing affordability, and whether markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:13 Forward Guidance Is Dead 08:28 Rate Volatility Returns 13:08 Why Hikes Won’t Happen 18:33 Liquidity Gets Tight 26:15 The AI Buildout Meets The Fed 35:55 The Summer Market Setup 42:39 MicroStrategy's Market Test 46:18 Bitcoin’s AI Opportunity Cost 53:29 Crypto Needs To Adapt 01:00:46 Gold Sentiment Hits Extremes FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yGHU0SgEjUNE1cDKP280F60FsRrcBqOh/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is forcing a rethinking of everything from energy and geopolitics to markets and human purpose while raising a deeper question: are we entering an era of abundance or losing control of the systems we’re building? Raoul Pal joins us live from DAS to break down how the AI arms race, liquidity dynamics, and crypto infrastructure are converging into a single macro narrative shaping the next cycle. We explore AI-driven abundance, crypto as agent infrastructure, oil and liquidity risks, tokenized data markets, and what human value looks like in an AI-dominated world. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:12 Oil Shock Meets Macro 05:22 AI Needs More Energy 07:19 The US China Race 08:53 Why Recessions Cannot Happen 12:03 Banks Will Provide Liquidity 15:24 AI Adoption Is Mispriced 18:41 Ads (Blockworks IR, Arkham) 20:15 Superintelligence Changes Everything 24:11 What Is Human Value 30:22 AI Agents Need Crypto 37:39 AI Meets Longevity FOLLOW GUEST › Raoul – https://x.com/RaoulGMI FOLLOW THE SHOW › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.