About this episode

The episode discusses the nature of making accurate predictions and the concept of calibration in forecasting.

In this episode, we explore what it really means to make a "good" prediction. Starting with something as ordinary as a weather forecast, we discuss why forecasting poses deep economic and game theoretic questions. Together with our guest Rakesh Vohra, we unpack the concept of calibration, examine how forecasts can be evaluated, and revisit the surprising insight that even someone without meteorological expertise can produce calibrated weather predictions. Rakesh Vohra is the George A. Weiss and Lydia Bravo Weiss University Professor of Economics at University of Pennsylvania. You can find his paper co-authored with Dean Foster on calibration here .

People in this episode

Host: TWS Partners

Guest: Rakesh Vohra

Topics covered

• prediction
• forecasting
• calibration
• game theory
• economics

Keywords

• prediction
• forecasting
• calibration
• game theory
• economics
• weather forecast
• evaluation

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: University of Pennsylvania

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