From Bad to Disastrous: Will Trump Escalate in Iran?

About this episode

The episode discusses the current state of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the implications of Trump's decision-making amidst the conflict.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Stephen Pomper and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about where the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran stands, one month in. Richard first speaks with Ali about reported backchannel talks between Washington and Tehran, the two sides’ largely incompatible demands for ending the war, changes in Iran’s leadership, and the slim prospects for de-escalation as the U.S. deploys more troops to the Gulf. Next, he speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf states see the war, where their views diverge, and what kind of outcome they would like to see when the war ends. He and Mairav talk about why the war continues to enjoy broad support in Israel despite its mounting costs, and what Israeli leaders still hope to achieve. Finally, Richard speaks with Michael and Stephen about Trump’s decision-making as the conflict continues, his erratic messaging, the administration’s options and what off-ramps remain. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify . For more, check out our Statement “ Finding an Off-ramp in the Middle East War ” and our Middle East & North Africa page. Hosted on…

People in this episode

Host: Richard

Guests: Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Stephen Pomper, Michael Wahid Hanna

Topics covered

• U.S.-Israeli war
• Iran
• de-escalation
• Gulf states
• Trump's decision-making
• Middle East conflict

Keywords

• Trump
• Iran conflict
• U.S. troops
• Gulf states
• Israeli support
• de-escalation
• backchannel talks

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Crisis Group

Places: Iran, U.S., Israel, Gulf

More episodes of Hold Your Fire!

• 100 Days Later: Can Trump Find an Off Ramp in the Gulf? · June 6, 2026 · 1h 10m
• India’s Kashmir and Manipur Conflicts and their Consequences · May 30, 2026 · 43 min
• The Trump-Xi Summit: What Happened in Beijing? · May 16, 2026 · 50 min
• A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire and An Evolving Battlefield? · May 9, 2026 · 41 min
• Jihadist and Separatist Rebels Gain Ground in Mali · May 1, 2026 · 48 min
• Lebanon’s Uneasy Truce · April 25, 2026 · 50 min