Hold Your Fire!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna and Stephen Pomper to discuss the announced ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the U.S. and what might follow. Richard first asks Ali why Iran agreed to a ceasefire, decision-making in Tehran and Iran’s approach to the Islamabad talks. He then speaks with Yasmine about Gulf reactions to the ceasefire, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and divergent Gulf Arab positions on the negotiations. Richard and Mairav then discuss how Israel views the ceasefire as operations continue in Lebanon and whether Israelis see the war as a success so far. Finally, Richard turns to Michael and Steve to discuss Trump’s threats against Iran, the frantic diplomacy behind the ceasefire, the risk of renewed escalation and what recent weeks reveal about the erosion of international law.For more, check out our Middle East & North Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Stephen Pomper and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about where the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran stands, one month in. Richard first speaks with Ali about reported backchannel talks between Washington and Tehran, the two sides’ largely incompatible demands for ending the war, changes in Iran’s leadership, and the slim prospects for de-escalation as the U.S. deploys more troops to the Gulf. Next, he speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf states see the war, where their views diverge, and what kind of outcome they would like to see when the war ends. He and Mairav talk about why the war continues to enjoy broad support in Israel despite its mounting costs, and what Israeli leaders still hope to achieve. Finally, Richard speaks with Michael and Stephen about Trump’s decision-making as the conflict continues, his erratic messaging, the administration’s options and what off-ramps remain.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our Statement “Finding an Off-ramp in the Middle East War” and our Middle East & North Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Lebanon expert David Wood and former Crisis Group President Rob Malley. Richard first talks with David about the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, why Hezbollah decided to launch attacks after the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began, Israel’s war aims in Lebanon and prospects for a ceasefire. Richard then turns to Rob to discuss the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran, how closely Washington and Israel are aligned in their objectives, whether Iran is pacing itself for a drawn-out conflict, and how Gulf states are reacting as they look for ways to bring the war to an end. They also discuss the danger of further escalation, possible pathways out of the conflict and lessons from years of failed diplomacy with Iran.For more, check out Rob’s article in The New York Times, “Of Course Trump Bombed Iran”, our commentary “A Sprawling Middle East War Explodes” and our Middle East page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmin Farouk to discuss the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, the regional fallout, and what could come next. Richard first speaks with Ali about the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and what it means for Tehran’s leadership and decision-making. They assess the damage to Iran’s missile capabilities, the risks posed by its remaining nuclear stockpile, and escalation dynamics as Iran retaliates against Israel and countries in the Gulf. Richard then speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf states are responding, their concerns about escalation and the “day after” in Iran, and their anger at Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, about progress in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks, U.S. involvement and shifting regional politics. They discuss U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s recent visit to Yerevan and Baku, why Washington got involved and U.S. efforts to broker agreement on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) – a proposed transit corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia. They talk about whether the corridor could move forward even without a fully ratified peace deal and examine the remaining sticking points. They also assess Türkiye’s expanding role in the region, Iran’s concerns about the corridor, Russia’s waning influence and European policy. They examine why the Trump administration’s peacemaking appears to have been more successful in the South Caucasus than elsewhere. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out Joshua’s recent Analyst’s Notebook, “Vance Visit Reaffirms U.S. Push to End Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict” and our Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Norway’s Foreign Minister, Espen Barth Eide. They discuss the latest U.S.-Europe tensions over Greenland, Arctic security and Europe’s approach to Washington. They then turn to prospects for a peace deal in Ukraine and what security guarantees might look like. They examine President Trump’s newly announced “Board of Peace” and its implications for Gaza, the danger of another round of U.S. strikes on Iran, the U.S. raid that seized Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and the outlook for political change in Venezuela. Finally, they reflect on the role of middle powers in a fragmenting world. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our last episode, The Greenland Showdown and Board of Peace at Davos and our Multilateral Diplomacy page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran Director Ali Vaez to discuss the wave of nationwide protests in Iran and what the unrest could mean for the Islamic Republic’s future. They look at what’s behind the protests, what is known about the situation on the ground amid an information blackout and the regime’s brutal crackdown, with a death toll that authorities themselves put in the thousands. They unpack the public anger at the regime, debates over who could rally an opposition, and calls for a referendum and a new constitutional order. They also assess President Donald Trump’s options, including the possibility of U.S. strikes, the risks of escalation or state collapse in Iran, and whether any viable path exists toward political change.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our latest statement “Iran in Crisis: Time for a Change from Within” and our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, in a special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Caracas-based senior Andes region analyst Phil Gunson to unpack the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and to assess what may come next. They examine how the operation unfolded, how it was experienced inside Venezuela, and the government’s initial response. They discuss Vice President Delcy Rodríguez’s assumption of power and whether Washington may be willing to work with a Maduro-less but still Chavista government to secure oil concessions rather than pursue full regime change. They talk about what Trump meant when he said the U.S. would “run” Venezuela. They also explore the weakened state of the opposition, the role of the military and armed groups, regional reactions, and the prospects for resolving Venezuela’s political crisis. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Matthew Wheeler, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Southeast Asia, about the renewed clashes along the Thailand-Cambodia border. They explore the origins of the long-running dispute and the triggers for the latest round of fighting, which has shattered a ceasefire reached in Malaysia in late July and displaced more than half a million people. They examine calculations in Bangkok and Phnom Penh, the rising nationalist sentiment in Thailand, and the fallout from a leaked phone call between then-Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia’s de facto leader Hun Sen in June. They also assess diplomacy to end the fighting, Malaysia’s mediation, and President Donald Trump’s role in brokering the July truce. As fighting continues despite Trump’s claim to have forged another ceasefire, they discuss why a quick de-escalation looks less likely this time around.For more, check out Matthew’s analyst’s notebook, “Ceasefire Collapses as Heavy Fighting Erupts along Cambodia-Thailand Border”, as well as our Cambodia and Thailand pages.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Dareen Khalifa, Crisis Group’s senior adviser for dialogue promotion, to discuss Syria’s transition after the fall of the Assad regime and the political evolution of President Ahmed al-Sharaa. They talk about al-Sharaa’s recent trip to the White House and Washington’s evolving Syria policy and sanctions relief. They examine how life has changed under Syria’s new leadership and the daunting task the authorities face in unifying the country’s armed groups, including efforts to integrate the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the north east. They also delve into outbreaks of sectarian violence in Alawite and Druze-majority areas, concerns about the political transition’s inclusiveness and Syria’s complicated relations with Israel. Finally, they trace al-Sharaa’s evolution from his militant past to the Syrian presidency and discuss whether domestic headwinds could derail his achievements on the world stage.For more, check out our Syria page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Phil Gunson and Renata Segura about U.S. military build-up off Venezuela’s coast, strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats and whether Washington could depose Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Venezuela and Andes expert Phil Gunson and Latin America & Caribbean director Renata Segura about the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. They assess the large-scale military build-up off Venezuela’s coast, officially framed as a counter-narcotics operation but widely seen as part of a broader campaign to pressure Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. They unpack U.S. strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats and how effective such measures are in curbing the narcotics trade. They talk about the evolution of U.S. policy toward Venezuela, divisions within Donald Trump’s team over policy and how Venezuelans view the latest escalation. They look at the role of Venezuela’s military and armed groups and how they might respond to foreign intervention. Finally, they consider Washington’s next steps and assess Trump’s approach to the Western hemisphere more broadly and how Latin American leaders view his policies. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our statement “Beware the Slide Toward Regime Change in Venezuela” and our Latin America & Caribbean regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Yemen expert Ahmed Nagi about what the ceasefire in Gaza means for the Israel-Houthi conflict, risks of further attacks in the Red Sea and the future of the intra-Yemeni peace process. In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Yemen expert, Ahmed Nagi, to discuss where the Israel-Houthi conflict may be headed after the ceasefire in Gaza. They examine the Houthis’ attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which the group links to Israel’s assault on Gaza. They assess Israel’s recent attacks in Yemen that killed senior Houthi political and military figures, and how the group is adapting. They also unpack the Houthis’ ties to Tehran, as they have become the most capable actor within Iran’s “axis of resistance”, as well as the group’s sharper rhetoric against Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. Finally, they discuss the standoff between the Houthis and its Yemeni rivals, the state of the internationally recognised government under the Presidential Leadership Council, risks of renewed conflict, and prospects for reviving intra-Yemeni talks.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Yemen country pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.