Hold Your Fire!

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, to discuss the fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and the risk of an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine federal forces’ recapture of Tigray’s capital Mekelle and what has changed since the previous war. They explore Eritrea’s calculations in backing its former enemy, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and whether Ethiopian advances toward the Eritrean border could bring the two countries into direct conflict. They also discuss Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access and how it has further fuelled tensions with Eritrea. Turning to the wider region, they assess how Middle Eastern powers’ competing interests could shape their responses to a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the risk of such a conflict becoming entangled with wars in Sudan. Finally, they consider what an urgent diplomatic effort to prevent further escalation would require.For more, check out our last episode Back to War in Ethiopia? our statement Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia and our Horn of Africa page Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s Director for Global Issues and Institutions, and Daniel Forti, Head of UN affairs, ahead of next week’s UN General Assembly high-level week. They explore the mood at the UN, its shifting relations with Washington and its shrinking role in peacemaking worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. They assess current Secretary-General António Guterres’s legacy, the contenders to succeed him and whether new leadership can reinvigorate the organisation’s peacemaking while defending the UN Charter’s principles and rebuilding relationships with powerful states. They also discuss how UN peacekeeping missions can adapt to fragile ceasefires and how much Western and non-Western mid-sized powers, which appear increasingly drawn to other forums, will invest in the UN’s future.Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more check out our special briefing “Ten Challenges for the UN in 2026-2027” and our multilateral diplomacy page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this first episode of a new season of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s European Security Director Olga Oliker about the role of nuclear weapons in Europe. They examine how Russia’s nuclear threats have constrained but failed to halt Western support for Ukraine, why Trump’s questioning of NATO commitments has weakened European confidence in U.S. nuclear protection, and why Russian military planners still assume Washington could intervene in a war with another NATO member state. They assess efforts to reinforce the U.S. nuclear umbrella and expand the role of French and British arsenals. They also talk briefly about the latest round of U.S. diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. They discuss U.S. special envoy’s Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s visits to Moscow  and Kyiv, why hopes for diplomatic breakthrough remain dim and the latest developments on battlefield. Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our Europe page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about how the U.S.-Israel war with Iran is unfolding and what might be next. Richard first speaks with Ali about what is happening inside Iran amid internet blackouts and heavy bombardment, debates around Iran’s leadership and Ali Khamenei’s succession, calculations in Tehran and the risks of state collapse. Next, Richard speaks with Yasmine about Iran’s continued missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries and how Gulf capitals weigh the dangers of escalation against the risks of Iran collapsing. He then speaks with Mairav about Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy, how Israelis are experiencing and viewing the war, and Israel’s renewed operations in Lebanon alongside the Iran campaign. Finally, he speaks with Michael about Washington’s murky motives for entering the war, the lack of domestic support for the campaign, debates about whether Netanyahu dragged U.S. President Donald Trump into war and potential off-ramps.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our last episode “Regime Change or Regional War? U.S. and Israel Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader” our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Africa director Murithi Mutiga about rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the growing risk of another war in the Horn of Africa. They discuss how political divisions in Tigray and Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access are sharpening fault lines between Addis Ababa and Asmara. They examine how Gulf and Middle Eastern rivalries could shape any Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation and increase the risk of wider regional conflagration, including the danger of spillover from Sudan’s war. They also explore how global political shifts are playing out in Africa, reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” and the prospects for coalitions of mid-sized Western and non-Western powers to act collectively. For more, check out our briefing, “Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa”, and our Ethiopia-Eritrea page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.