The Spring Forecast explained

The Spring Forecast explained

From IFS Zooms In: The Economy by Institute for Fiscal Studies

March 4, 2026 · 41 min · Season 7 · Episode 7

About this episode

The episode discusses the implications of the Spring Forecast on the UK economy, focusing on energy prices and government policy.

Helen Miller is joined by IFS colleagues Ben Zaranko and Bee Boileau to discuss the Spring Forecast. The headline numbers haven’t moved much since the autumn, but that stability may not last. With conflict in the Middle East pushing up oil and gas prices, the UK faces a potential negative shock: higher inflation, pressure on interest rates, and a tougher outlook for households, businesses and the public finances. We discuss what higher energy prices could mean for government policy (from fuel duty to targeted support), why calls to raise defence spending are growing, and the scale of the trade-offs involved. We also look at three key forecast uncertainties: unemployment, migration, and volatile capital gains tax receipts. Finally, we ask how realistic tight future spending plans look ahead of the next Spending Review. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

People in this episode

Host: Helen Miller

Guests: Ben Zaranko, Bee Boileau

Topics covered

  • Spring Forecast
  • UK economy
  • energy prices
  • government policy
  • inflation
  • public finances

Keywords

  • Spring Forecast
  • UK economy
  • inflation
  • energy prices
  • government policy
  • defence spending
  • unemployment
  • migration
  • capital gains tax

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Institute for Fiscal Studies

Places: UK, Middle East

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