IFS Zooms In: The Economy

Moving into 2026, the government faces a critical period of delivery. After 18 months in power and several major fiscal events behind them, the focus is shifting from setting policy to seeing it through. However, with unemployment reaching 5.1% and a series of high-stakes reviews underway, the road ahead remains complex.In this episode, we are joined by Christine Farquharson and Tom Waters to examine the economic landscape for the year ahead. We look at the rising pressures on the public purse, from health-related benefits to the "national conversation" on SEND, and ask what the upcoming fiscal events might reveal about the government’s long-term strategy. We also look at what could shift the outlook, for better or worse, from public sector productivity to the economic impact of new technologies like AI and GLP-1 drugs.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on IFS Zooms In, host Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Ben Zaranko and Christine Farquharson to unpack one of the biggest Autumn Budgets in years. With seventy-five policy measures, major tax and spending changes, and a striking shift in the economic forecasts, this was a Budget that surprised almost everyone.Helen, Ben and Christine break down:Why the expected “fiscal repair job” never arrivedHow a “lucky” surge in forecast tax receipts reshaped the Chancellor’s optionsThe major spending stories: abolishing the two-child limit, rising welfare pressures, SEND funding reform, and tighter departmental plansThe government’s tax decisions - from threshold freezes to the new ‘mansion tax’Whether any of this adds up to a credible long-term strategy for growthBecome a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The bond market plays a crucial role in shaping government spending decisions - but how much power does it really have? With a Budget around the corner, are investors or Rachel Reeves setting the limits on fiscal policy?In this episode, we unpack how the government borrows, why it’s so expensive right now, and what “fiscal credibility” really means. Joining Helen are Jack Meaning, Chief Economist at Barclays, and Ben Zaranko, IFS, to discuss the state of the bond market, the lessons from the Liz Truss era, and what investors will be watching for in the 2025 Budget.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why are chocolate-covered shortbread and plain shortbread taxed differently? The UK’s VAT system is full of bizarre inconsistencies that make it complex, inefficient, and unfair.In this episode, we dive into how VAT works, why economists tend to love it in theory, and why the UK’s version falls short in practice. We explore zero and reduced rates, exemptions, myths about regressivity, and discuss how simplifying VAT could make it fairer and less distortionary.In the fourth and final episode of our tax mini-series, Helen, Ben and Stuart look at how to fix one of the UK’s most important and misunderstood taxes.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the second episode of our mini-series on how to fix the UK’s tax system, Helen is joined by Stuart Adam and Ben Zaranko to explore one of the most contentious areas of taxation - savings and wealth.Why do people who earn through investments often pay lower taxes than those earning a salary? Why do business owners and landlords sometimes end up both undertaxed and overtaxed? And could an annual wealth tax ever work in practice?This episode unpacks how the UK taxes savings, dividends, capital gains and inheritances, revealing the tensions at the heart of our system - and what a fair, efficient approach to taxing wealth might really look like.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rachel Reeves is once again facing tough choices on tax and spending. After promising no further tax rises last autumn, the Chancellor could now see a sizeable downgrade to the borrowing outlook - enough to wipe out the limited ‘headroom’ she built into her fiscal plans last spring. To stick to her ‘iron-clad’ rules, Reeves may now need a sizeable fiscal consolidation through tax rises, spending cuts, or both.Helen talks to IFS economists Carl Emmerson and Ben Zaranko about why we’re back here again, what’s really driving the UK’s fiscal challenges, and what options the Chancellor has to get the public finances back on track. They discuss whether Reeves can stick to her fiscal rules, what role productivity and growth forecasts play, and how the government could avoid fiscal 'ground hog' day again.This episode is part of the 2025 Green Budget, our annual report exploring the Chancellor’s options.📘 Read more: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/green-budget-2025-full-report💡 Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From child benefit to winter fuel payments, debates over who really deserves support run through the history of the UK’s welfare state. In this episode of IFS Zooms In, we ask whether benefits should be universal, means-tested or contributory — and why the UK's benefits system has become one of the most means-tested in the developed world.Helen is joined by Nicholas Timmins (Institute for Government) and Tom Waters (IFS) to explore Beveridge’s original vision, the rise of means-testing and whether ideas like Universal Basic Income could work.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, we turn the tables and put your questions to the experts.From childcare and early years, to schools, apprenticeships, and family life — listeners sent in brilliant questions on the challenges facing children and young people today.Helen Miller is joined by Christine Farquharson and guests Carey Oppenheim, Sam Freedman, Philip Augar, and Anne Longfield to discuss:- Should mothers be supported to stay at home rather than return to work?- Has YouTube made teaching harder for schools?- How can we encourage more firms to offer apprenticeships and sponsorships?- What are the consequences of declining physical activity and play?👉 Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to subscribe for more evidence-based discussions from IFS Zooms In.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.