"Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" by Richard_Ngo

"Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" by Richard_Ngo

July 10, 2026 · 16 min

About this episode

Richard Ngo critiques the AI 2040 scenario, discussing his main criticisms and suggestions for improvement.

Some context for this post: I’ve been working part-time as a consultant for the AI Futures Project over the last year. Most of the work I’ve done for them has involved critiquing and suggesting improvements for their AI 2040 scenario—some of which were addressed, and some of which weren’t. To their credit, they asked me to write up my remaining critiques into a post that would accompany its launch. In the rest of this post I’ll discuss my three biggest high-level criticisms of AI 2040. Bef...

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Guests: Richard_Ngo, Richard Ngo

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Organizations: AI Futures Project

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