“It Only Takes One”: Why 2026’s Hurricane Season Could Be Worse Than It Looks
About this episode
This episode discusses the potential risks of the 2026 hurricane season despite average storm numbers.
The 2026 hurricane season warning nobody is talking about. The numbers may be average but the risk is anything but because “It only takes one”. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season may look average on paper, but the real story is far more concerning. In this episode, we break down why fewer storms does not mean lower risk. Exceptionally warm ocean waters are creating the perfect setup for rapid intensification, increasing the chances of high-impact hurricanes that can strengthen just before landfall. We analyze the developing shift toward El Niño and what it means for wind shear, storm formation, and why the Gulf of Mexico can still produce dangerous systems even in a suppressed pattern. You will also hear about major operational changes coming from the National Hurricane Center, including a redesigned forecast cone that highlights inland impacts and new storm surge products. At the same time, a growing political battle over proposed NOAA budget cuts could impact forecasting, research, and preparedness in the years ahead. This episode connects the science, the forecast, and the policy decisions shaping the future of hurricane risk. Because as history shows, it only takes one storm…
People in this episode
Host: Rob Jones
Topics covered
- hurricane risk
- El Niño
- storm formation
- climate change
- hurricane forecasting
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: National Hurricane Center, NOAA
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