“Sleepwalking into Crisis”: Why The Oil Market Hasn’t Imploded Yet | Kpler’s Matt Smith

About this episode

Jack Farley interviews Matt Smith about the looming crisis in the global oil market amidst the Iran war and its implications for supply and pricing.

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with Matt Smith, the Director of Research at Kepler, to analyze how the global oil market is sleepwalking into a major supply crisis four months into the Iran war conflict. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for over three months, approximately 11 million barrels per day of crude supply have been removed from the market, forcing a global reduction of 9 million barrels per day in refinery runs. Smith explains that China's sudden decision to halt buying and scale back its own refinery operations temporarily freed up 4.5 million barrels per day for the global market, masking the true severity of the physical shortage. Meanwhile, the United States has acted as a primary buffer by heavily exporting refined products overseas, which has caused domestic inventories—particularly at the Cushing pricing hub—to deplete rapidly toward critical operational bottoms. Despite these deep structural deficits, headline benchmarks remain under $100 due to seasonal demand lulls and political interventions, leaving the trading market in a temporary state of complacency…

People in this episode

Host: Jack Farley

Guest: Matt Smith

Topics covered

• oil market
• supply crisis
• Iran war
• refinery operations
• global market
• price response

Keywords

• oil market
• supply crisis
• Iran war
• refinery operations
• global supply
• price response
• Cushing

Sponsors

Teucrium Corn Fund

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Kpler

Places: Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Cushing

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