Dan Niles: We're 100% in an AI Bubble... Don't Go Broke Trying to Call the Pop
About this episode
Dan Nathan hosts Dan Niles to discuss the current AI bubble and its implications for the market.
Dan Nathan hosts Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management on the Risk Reversal podcast to discuss macro conditions, AI-driven market leadership, and lessons from prior tech cycles. Niles compares the current AI build-out to 1997–1998’s internet infrastructure boom, arguing recent macro scares (tariffs, Iran/oil) created buying opportunities and that a bubble can persist, with further gains likely before a potential 30–50% drawdown next year. He cites a January 30 “agentic AI” step-change increasing token/compute demand, supporting strong CapEx and earnings growth, and notes Nvidia’s growth versus valuation relative to past leaders like Cisco. They debate rising yields, inflation measures, and expectations for a rate-cutting Fed chair (Kevin Warsh). The conversation covers Intel’s potential benefit from agentic shifts, corporate AI cost pressures, likely disruption to software/IT services and knowledge work, Micron’s HBM-driven surge and cyclicality risks, and how major IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could reshape flows and create new short opportunities. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media…
People in this episode
Host: Dan Nathan
Guest: Dan Niles
Topics covered
- AI Bubble
- market leadership
- macro conditions
- tech cycles
- corporate AI
- IPO impacts
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: Niles Investment Management, Nvidia, Intel, Micron, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic
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