RiskReversal Pod

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: ⁠http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us⁠ Guy Adami welcomes Mike Tracey, Vice President of Risk at Apex Fintech Solutions, to discuss how credit and debt markets are increasingly driving equity action, with bond volatility and elevated yields pressuring the AI CapEx trade now funded more by debt. They examine revenue-whisper risk around OpenAI and Anthropic and describe Oracle as a tracking stock for OpenAI expectations, given its dependence on data-center buildouts. Despite the S&P 500 near highs and a VIX around 16, they argue dispersion and rotation are masking risk and that investors should watch more targeted measures like VXN and SMH volatility. The conversation highlights cybersecurity as a major “unknown unknown,” the fragility of hyperscaler CapEx “sanctity,” gold’s appeal amid persistent deficits, uninspiring Bitcoin flows, risks from short-vol positioning, and potential market impacts from midterm-election surprises and Middle East escalation feeding into inflation, yields, and corporate debt. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Dan Nathan welcomes Deirdre Bosa to the Okay, Computer podcast to discuss her upcoming daily Yahoo Finance show, “Deirdre Bosa Live,” launching November 9 and airing weekdays 1–2 PM PT. They dig into how Microsoft has shifted Copilot toward a model-agnostic approach—routing tasks to the most cost-effective models amid open-source commoditization—while also launching its Maia 300 custom AI chip to manage supply and spending uncertainty. The conversation touches on Meta’s product-driven resurgence, enterprise adoption dynamics, and investor concerns about AI infrastructure capex and debt. They compare emerging personal AI assistants (Muse, Instinct, and OpenAI “Dot”), emphasizing utility, branding, and trust/security as prerequisites for broader adoption, with Apple and identity layers like 1Password seen as potential catalysts. They close on China’s low-cost, high-volume token usage pressuring global pricing and shaping open-source competition. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami reunite to preview the week, focusing on two late-week tech stories: a Nikkei report that Apple may have cut iPhone 18/18 Pro component orders, and market volatility sparked by questions around OpenAI’s revenue figures, including debate over annual run-rate calculations and implications for AI-linked stocks and “NeoCloud” customers. They discuss a macro backdrop of a 10-year yield around 5.24%, a firm dollar, subdued VIX, and sticky crude near $91 amid heightened Middle East tensions and election-related timing concerns. The pair critique Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s approach as yields rise despite policy aims, and debate what could bring rates down. They also discuss AI build-out financing, pulled IPOs, and upcoming CPI/PPI plus major bank earnings, emphasizing guidance, consumer delinquencies, and potential volatility into the midterms. Show Notes Inside Bessent’s Treasury: Tension, Turnover and Unmet Economic Goals (WSJ) Bessent rips Wall Street Journal after report on ‘tension, turnover’ (The Hill) Exclusive: Apple cuts iPhone 18 Pro orders due to soft demand (Nikkei) OpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled (FT) AI agents could cost banks $500bn — by winning savers better rates (FT) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Go follow the 'What Are We Doing' Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/ LIVE from the HOOD Summit in Houston: Dan Nathan hosts as the guys walk through the short seller's checklist: short interest, valuation, cost to borrow and, most importantly, a real catalyst. They explain why shorting is so much harder than it looks and how they manage risk by pressing into rallies and covering into weakness. Porter then morphed into a combination of Carter Worth and Steve Kornacki by pointing out technicals on the big screen while Vinnie and Danny argued about whether or not trading options is a decent alternative at times to trading stocks. Vinnie is right that most of the time the option market makers win (i.e. Ken Griffin). They hit a few single names like Fair Isaac (FICO), Carvana (CVNA), Tesla (TSLA), Upstart (UPST) Circle (CRCL) and Goldman Sachs (GS). They also discuss why owning gold as a way to express the debasement trade may beat trying to short the S&P 500. The session wraps with audience questions on meme stocks, stop losses and finding shorts in a market that only seems to go up. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Live from the HOOD Summit in Houston, Guy & Dan sit down with Robinhood's Steph Guild, Porter Collins, Vincent Daniel to make sense of a market sitting near record highs despite a war, $95 oil and a 10-year yield pushing past 5%. The panel digs into horrific market breadth and the passive flows propping up a handful of mega-caps. They discuss why private credit may be the canary in the coal mine for the AI buildout, and whether Nvidia's lending to its own customers makes it look more like a bank than a chipmaker. They also cover the case for energy after years of underinvestment, opportunities in Latin America ahead of Brazil's election, the debasement trade in gold and Bitcoin, and whether AI will ultimately create or destroy jobs. The episode closes with audience questions on agent trading, cybersecurity risk and AI's impact on healthcare. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Tonight we're at Hunt and Fish Club talking with Anthony Scaramucci. Most people know him for his famous two weeks in the Trump White House, but he's so much more than that. He's the founder of SkyBridge Capital, a fixture on Wall Street, and one of New York's most resilient comeback stories. In 2015, he co-founded Hunt and Fish Club, a tribute to 1960s New York and old-school hospitality. Listen in while we discuss inflation, Bitcoin, and what’s broken in America. Timecodes: 00:00 – Cold open: Wall Street vs. Washington 00:30 – Show Intro 01:08 – Meet Anthony Scaramucci + Hunt & Fish Club 02:30 – Childhood, family values & early influences 04:47 – Career start: Goldman Sachs & lessons learned 05:30 – Inflation, debt & the state of the economy 08:24 – Wealth gap & what’s broken in America 11:24 – Culture, mentorship & paying it forward 16:15 – Bitcoin, money & the future of finance 21:10 – Politics, life lessons & gratitude — FOLLOW US Instagram: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/riskreversalmedia/⁠ Twitter: ⁠https://x.com/riskreversal⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/riskreversalmedia/⁠ Standing Table is made possible through our continued partnership with Apex Fintech Solutions. Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing. For more information, visit the Apex Fintech Solutions website: ⁠https://apexfintechsolutions.com/⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/apex-fintech/⁠ SUBSCRIBE: RiskReversal Pod for more from Guy and Dan: ⁠https://apple.co/3RzvgpD⁠ RiskReversal Media channel for more episodes and content: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRAOycPjsSgcEyQcuJD_ENA⁠ The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.​​

Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing. LEARN MORE HERE Checkout Gary's Substack: https://garymarcus.substack.com/ Jim Chanos returns, this time with AI researcher/professor emeritus Gary Marcus. The two join Dan to discuss AI's build-out technology, economics, and risks. Marcus argues modern LLMs lack durable technical moats, remain unreliable and hallucination-prone, and are becoming commoditized, driving token price wars and challenging profitability for OpenAI/Anthropic; he favors neurosymbolic approaches and warns that “agent” systems are causing serious security incidents, saying OpenAI should be temporarily shut down or put into receivership until fixed. Chanos explains his bearish focus on data centers as capital-intensive, low-return “equipment leasing” businesses being marketed like REITs, with hyperscaler incremental returns declining and credit tightening. They compare the AI cycle to late-1990s TMT, discuss NVIDIA’s unique position versus its customers, highlight IPO/financing as a potential breaking point, and debate regulation, surveillance “dystopia,” and political risks. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing. LEARN MORE: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/?utm_source=Risk+Reversal&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_campaign=701PJ00000fnXhaYAE Dan Nathan hosts Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management on the Risk Reversal podcast to discuss a rallying market amid a 5% 10-year yield, rising global rates, and negative September seasonality ahead of the midterms. Niles argues AI-driven data-center spending has powered 2024 returns, but warns of risks from Texas’s data-center moratorium, potential political pushback, comments by Altman, Anthropic’s Dario, and Musk about slowing AI, falling model pricing and profitability concerns, and possible compute-reducing architectural shifts; he cites early signs of spend shifting toward cheaper open-source models. They discuss how hiking cycles, deficits, and weak equity risk premium could pressure valuations and unwind carry trades, and compare today’s AI buildout to the dot-com era, where backlogs and circular financing can reverse quickly. Niles sees AI ultimately consolidating to a few winners, favors Anthropic in enterprise, expects Google to reassert leadership due to data and cloud acceleration, views Meta as a dark-horse beneficiary via consumer distribution, explains Microsoft’s advantage through its OpenAI stake and security-focused Copilot, and outlines a bullish 2025 view on Apple driven by a foldable-phone upgrade cycle despite near-term execution risks. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Checkout the WAWD Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/ Watch Danny's Interview with Cameron Dawson: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zh-wizTNeC0 Guy hosts Danny Moses on the RiskReversal Podcast, recorded on September 11, and they discuss Japan as an epicenter for global markets as the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates, highlighting Japan’s ability to sell over $1.2 trillion in US Treasuries and the implications for US yields amid $40 trillion in debt, a $2 trillion deficit, and heavy near-term refinancing needs. They argue oil is inflationary but not the sole driver, citing AI CapEx, tariffs, and rising business costs, with wage growth lagging inflation and consumer stress showing up in delinquencies and weak performance in stocks like homebuilders and American Express. Moses critiques Treasury Secretary Bessent’s “I am the house” stance and discusses gold’s strength, European gold repatriation, and the idea of marking US gold to market. They also cover bullish energy themes, including refiners and LNG name Golar, and end with updates on Danny's Substack and some NFL bets. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.