RiskReversal Pod

Find James Lavish's SubStack Here: https://www.jameslavish.com/ Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout the WAWD Substack here: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/ In this episode of On the Tape, Danny Moses welcomes James Lavish back to the show for a wide-ranging conversation that goes well beyond Bitcoin. Drawing on his background trading risk arbitrage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and running the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, James breaks down why he believes the Fed and Treasury are "trapped" by a looming wall of debt—roughly $14 trillion rolling over in the next year on top of ongoing $2 trillion deficits—and what that means for rates, inflation, and the dollar. Danny and James dig into Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair and his more hawkish-but-mostly-bark tone, the odds of a July rate hike, and how the war and energy prices are feeding back into inflation. They explore the "hot ball of money" chasing AI and the SpaceX IPO, the K-shaped economy driving retail toward speculative bets, and why James sees a coming rotation of capital out of high-flying AI names and back into Bitcoin. The two also debate Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) at length—whether its leverage and perpetual preferred structure leave Saylor in a "trap" or a position of strength—with James arguing the balance sheet concerns are overblown if you believe in Bitcoin long term. James shares how his fund approaches Bitcoin-adjacent energy and AI investments, and Danny closes with his Kalshi picks of the week. --ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

In New York, pizza is not just food - it’s part of the city’s DNA. And that story runs deep in Brooklyn where working class immigrant neighborhoods helped shape the pizza we know today. Grimaldi’s, sitting in the shadows of the Brooklyn Bridge, serves authentic, coal-fired brick oven pizza, sought out by tourists, locals and celebs like Ilir Sela, the founder and CEO of Slice. As an Albanian raised in Staten Island, pizza was Ilir’s destiny. In this episode, we’re sharing a pie with this founder who transformed mom & pop shops around the country and today enjoys the largest network of independent pizzerias in America. Timecodes 00:00 “I Bought a Bentley With My First Profits” 00:32 Meet the Founder of Slice 03:20 The Albanian Connection to Pizza 05:30 Is Cheese a Topping? 06:23 Why Domino's Is a Great Business 09:30 The Problem Slice Was Built to Solve 14:00 Building a Business-in-a-Box for Pizzerias 19:28 The Moment He Knew Slice Would Work 20:47 From a Two-Bedroom Apartment to a Tech Company 22:30 The Secret to Entrepreneurial Success —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Is the AI trade a bubble? Imran Khan — founder of Proem Asset Management, former Snap executive, and the banker behind the Alibaba and Mercado Libre IPOs — isn't convinced. Dan Nathan sits down with Imran to pressure-test the bear case, from Nvidia's below-market multiple to the cyclical-vs-secular debate in memory, and to dig into why a big chunk of SpaceX's $2.5T valuation may not be a space story at all. Topics Covered Why hyperscalers underperform during heavy CapEx cycles — and why that's historically the best time to buy Distribution vs. technology: how Gemini won while arguably being the inferior model, and why Grok couldn't Meta's setup — cheap on earnings, not cheap on free cash flow — and the Zuckerberg "big swing" risk Nvidia at a $5T market cap: the $20B debt raise, buybacks, and the customers-are-competitors problem Micron and high-bandwidth memory sold out into 2027, and the cyclical-vs-secular question that decides the stock The "bottleneck trade" everyone's chasing — and why earnings durability is the thing to watch Energy constraints, data center delays, and the long-term demand picture Imran's contrarian case that AI won't create structural unemployment SpaceX's valuation decoded: rocket launch, Starlink, and the xAI cloud ramp What OpenAI and Anthropic coming to market could mean for the AI trade —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down a historic market week, headlined by SpaceX's blockbuster IPO and Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. Elon priced the deal himself at $135, and the stock popped to a ~$2.2 trillion valuation—instantly the 6th most valuable company in the world. The guys dig into whether the numbers actually add up, walking through Morningstar's $63 fair value, Jim Chanos's bearish note on xAI's financials, and what a 110x sales multiple means for anyone buying the pop. They also preview Warsh's "less is more" approach to Fed communication and what a quieter central bank means for volatility ahead. Then Dan is joined by VC Ann Bordetsky, for an "Okay, Computer." segment on the private-market side of the story: the looming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs, OpenAI's rumored token price war, the compute crunch constraining AI demand, and why the CFO may now be the most powerful seat at any AI company. Articles Referenced OpenAI Considers Drastic Price Cuts, Anticipating War for Users With Anthropic (WSJ) Everyone hates frontier AI labs, says Palantir boss (The Register) "VCs behaving badly" (Axios) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal MediaThe financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout the Boock Report: https://boockreport.com On this episode of On the Tape, host Danny Moses sits down with returning guest Peter Boockvar — independent economist, market strategist, and CIO at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners — for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces shaping today's markets. Peter and Danny dig into why yields finally started mattering to equity investors, the self-fulfilling momentum behind the AI trade, and China's rapid rise as a formidable competitor in EVs, robotics, semiconductors, and AI — and what that means for U.S. tech dominance. They also tackle the housing affordability crisis, the Fed's rate path, rising unemployment risk, and whether the U.S. consumer can hold up. Plus, Danny runs Peter through a series of event contract odds — from Fed rate cuts to S&P price targets — for a fast-paced gut-check on where markets are headed. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan discuss an S&P 500 pressing all-time highs amid sticky inflation, a 10-year yield around the mid-4% range, and low near-term volatility despite an upcoming Fed meeting and PCE data. They review mixed retail signals (strength at higher-end brands versus Walmart’s margin pressure and a strained lower-end consumer), debate the market’s resilience, and focus on AI: Nvidia’s explosive growth and concerns that soaring usage-based AI costs could challenge the “sanctity” of big-tech CapEx, alongside critiques of Meta layoffs and skepticism about SaaS firms overpromising AI. Guy then interviews Darrell Crate of Easterly, who outlines structural volatility, demographic-driven retirement needs, and hedged equity demand, argues small caps benefit from innovation, and describes Easterly Government Properties as a mission-critical government-lease REIT with an 8% dividend, no canceled leases, a $1.5B pipeline, and potential tailwinds from government efficiency initiatives and GSA changes. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan sits down with Lux Capital partner Shahin Farshchi and AI investor Ann Bordetsky from the RBC Private Tech Conference to explore what comes after ChatGPT — and where the next wave of AI is headed. From defense, robotics, semiconductors, and space infrastructure to AI agents, enterprise software, and the future of work, these conversations break down the technologies, companies, and trends shaping the next decade. They also discuss trillion-dollar valuations, venture capital, hyperscalers, and what separates breakout AI winners from the rest. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

In this episode of the Risk Reversal Podcast, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss Friday's stock sell-off, geopolitical tensions, oil and the AI mania. Later, they sit down with Brian Hartigan, Global Head of ETFs & Index Investments at Invesco, to discuss the future of the QQQ, market concentration, passive investing, AI-driven growth, and the next wave of mega IPOs. They dive into Nvidia’s dominance, the role of options in investing, why QQQ has remained a powerful long-term vehicle, and what investors should understand about market structure as AI reshapes the economy. Topics include: • QQQ and the evolution of the Nasdaq 100 • Nvidia, concentration risk & AI winners • Passive investing and market structure • The growing role of options strategies • SpaceX, OpenAI & the next generation of IPOs • Interest rates, fixed income & portfolio construction • Product innovation at Invesco Timecodes: 00:00 Intro: Markets, Trump/Xi Summit & Rising Yields 07:18 Why Bond Yields Could Pressure Stocks 12:08 Is the Consumer Actually Slowing? 16:10 AI Mania, Ford Energy & Speculative Trading 18:50 Cerebras IPO & Peak AI Speculation? 25:05 Brian Hartigan Joins the Podcast 26:35 What Brian Hartigan Does at Invesco 28:15 Inside QQQ: Concentration, Nvidia & Liquidity 30:20 Retail vs Institutional Investors in QQQ 34:05 SpaceX, OpenAI & Fast-Tracking IPOs into Indexes 39:05 Passive Investing & Why Companies Want Into QQQ 42:18 How Investors Use QQQ Options 45:15 Interest Rates, Fixed Income & Portfolio Positioning 47:05 AI, Nvidia & the Future of Market Leadership 50:45 Why QQQ Has Been a Long-Term Winner 52:45 How Invesco Builds New ETF Products 54:40 Georgetown, NCAA Sponsorships & Investor Education 56:45 Final Thoughts & Outro —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media