David Rosenberg Isn’t Drinking The “AI Productivity” Kool-Aid

About this episode

Dan Nathan interviews David Rosenberg about the current state of the U.S. economy and market dynamics, focusing on AI productivity and inflation risks.

This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: www.Fidelity.com/TraderPlus Fidelity Investments and Risk Reversal are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC. Dan Nathan speaks with David Rosenberg about a market week packed with tech earnings, GDP, PCE, the Fed, oil above $100, and a sharp USD/JPY move. Rosenberg argues the U.S. economy is K-shaped, with Q1 GDP growth heavily driven by AI-related tech capex while non-tech business investment contracts, and consumer spending exceeding flat-to-negative real disposable income mainly due to a falling savings rate, wealth effects at the high end, and credit reliance at the low end amid rising delinquencies. He says most sectors are losing jobs, productivity has driven nearly all recent growth, and an oil price shock is a supply-side tax likely to weaken demand rather than create sustained inflation. They discuss a divided Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh, high market concentration, extreme…

People in this episode

Host: Dan Nathan

Guest: David Rosenberg

Topics covered

• AI productivity
• market analysis
• tech earnings
• U.S. economy
• inflation risks
• consumer spending
• Federal Reserve

Keywords

• AI
• GDP
• PCE
• oil prices
• USD/JPY
• consumer spending
• Federal Reserve
• market concentration
• valuations

Sponsors

Fidelity Investments

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Risk Reversal, Fidelity Trader+

Places: U.S., Japan

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