About this episode

The episode features a discussion on Fed communication changes, inflation dynamics, and market risks with guest Ben Emons.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors to discuss shifting Fed communication under Kevin Warsh, including a push away from strong forward guidance like recent comments from Waller. Emons distinguishes disinflation from deflation, noting a negative month-to-month CPI driven by energy declines but warning energy has already rebounded, making expectations volatile. He highlights “funflation” in categories like recreation and food away from home alongside broad underlying price pressures. The group debates whether AI is inflationary, with Emons pointing to supply-constrained memory prices and AI-related investment as drivers, and discusses IBM’s sharp drop after clients shifted CapEx toward servers, storage, and memory. They also cover Middle East Strait closures adding an oil war premium, positioning risks across crude, rates, and equities, yen weakness and potential BOJ action, and heightened volatility and leverage in a “Parabolic Seven” chip/memory cohort that could trigger broader market rotation and tightening financial conditions. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The…

People in this episode

Hosts: Dan Nathan, Guy Adami

Guest: Ben Emons

Topics covered

• Fed communication
• disinflation vs deflation
• AI and inflation
• energy prices
• market volatility
• investment strategies

Keywords

• Fed communication
• disinflation
• deflation
• AI inflation
• energy prices
• market volatility
• IBM
• CapEx
• Parabolic Seven

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: FedWatch Advisors, IBM, BOJ

Places: Middle East

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