About this episode

Paul Merriman analyzes historical data on retirement withdrawals to illustrate the impact of different withdrawal rates on a $1 million portfolio.

In Boot Camp #6, Paul Merriman walks through real historical data starting in 1970 to test what happens when retirees withdraw 3%, 4%, or 5% from a $1 million portfolio — adjusted for inflation — across some of the toughest market conditions in history. This episode covers: The difference between retiring with “enough” and “more than enough” How inflation quietly turns $30,000 into $130,000+ over 30 years What happens if you retire into a bear market Why 1% more in withdrawals can cost millions S&P 500 vs. a globally diversified four-fund strategy How diversification impacts lifetime income and legacy outcomes The real risk of sequence of returns in retirement Why some portfolios ran out of money — and others didn’t You’ll hear side-by-side comparisons of: 100% S&P 500 portfolios 40/60, 50/50, and 60/40 stock-bond mixes A worldwide four-fund equity strategy Fixed inflation-adjusted withdrawals over 30 years The results may surprise you — especially when comparing 3%, 4%, and 5% withdrawal rates. If you're approaching retirement, already retired, or helping someone make distribution decisions, this episode breaks down the numbers in plain English and shows how small…

People in this episode

Hosts: Paul Merriman, Paul

Topics covered

• retirement planning
• withdrawal strategies
• inflation impact
• market conditions
• portfolio management
• diversification
• sequence of returns risk

Keywords

• 3% withdrawal
• 4% withdrawal
• 5% withdrawal
• S&P 500
• global diversification
• fixed distributions

Mentioned in this episode

Products: S&P 500, four-fund equity strategy

More episodes of Sound Investing

• Christine Benz: Practical Retirement Planning from Morningstar's Top Expert · April 22, 2026 · 1h 54m
• Larry Swedroe: The Evidence-Based Rules Every Investor Needs to Know | Bainbridge Financial Literacy Series 2026 · April 15, 2026 · 1h 50m
• PlanVision: Low Cost Flat-Fee Financial Planning for Do-It-Yourself Investors · April 8, 2026 · 1h 10m
• Paul Merriman on Managing $1.6 Billion But Never His Own Money · April 1, 2026 · 53 min
• Q & A Deep Dive · March 25, 2026 · 37 min
• DFA & Avantis ETFs: Building the Ultimate Lifetime Equity Strategy · March 25, 2026 · 54 min

Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the Sound Investing podcast page.