Sound Investing

For first-time listeners, welcome! In this opening episode of the year, Paul Merriman—founder of the Merriman Financial Education Foundation—looks back at 2025 to uncover what the markets taught us and how those lessons can help do-it-yourself investors make better decisions going forward.Despite endless predictions about what markets should do, Paul reminds us that his role isn’t to forecast the future—but to help investors understand risk, return, and how to build portfolios they can truly stick with.In this episode, Paul explores:A surprising result from the “Magnificent Seven” stocksWhy diversification mattered more than ever in 2025How different equity asset classes really performedWhat 56 years of data (1970–2026) tells us about staying the courseWhy portfolio structure matters far more than chasing winnersTwo very different—but valid—approaches to fixed income investingIf you want perspective instead of predictions—and data instead of hype—this episode is a powerful way to start the year.

In this episode, Paul shares the thinking behind what he believes may be one of the most important projects of his career—a project guided by a single goal:That every investor who follows our work will know how to invest for the rest of their life.To explain why that goal matters, Paul walks through the forks in the road every investor eventually faces—from betting on individual companies to owning entire markets, from chasing excitement to embracing simplicity.Drawing on real experiences, including private investments that went to zero and one that unexpectedly turned into millions, Paul explains why diversification beats prediction, how a simple portfolio decision may quietly add about 1% a year over time, and why many academics draw a clear line between investing and speculation.This episode isn’t about chasing returns.It’s about building a plan you can live with—through good markets and bad—for the rest of your life.If you’re looking for clarity, discipline, and a framework that helps you stay the course, this conversation is a powerful place to start.Next week, I’ll be reviewing what we learned in 2025—and what those lessons may mean for 2026 and beyond.Thank you, and happy holidays to you and your family.

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve been recording a series of Q&As that came out of a presentation I gave in November for the American Association of Individual Investors — AAII.At the end of that nearly two-hour talk, I promised that I’d do a podcast answering every single question that came in. Well… there were 36 questions. That’s a little too much for one episode, so we broke them into three parts.This is Part 3 — the final 12 questions. If you haven’t heard Parts 1 and 2 yet, we’ll link those in the show notes so you can catch up.Before we jump in, I just want to say: I’m a huge fan of AAII. I started teaching their local chapters way back in 1984, and over the years I think I’ve presented to just about every chapter in the country — sometimes in person, sometimes by Zoom — but always to people who are genuinely committed to learning how investing works.If you’ve never checked out AAII, I’ll include a link in the notes for a low-cost trial membership. Take a look around and see if it’s a resource that fits your investing journey.Alright — let’s get to the last 12.Will you develop strategies using the equal-weighted S&P 500? 01:44Can you recommend advisors who follow your strategy? 07:20Should I move mutual funds to ETFs in taxable accounts despite taxes? 11:26With markets at highs, should I keep dollar-cost averaging or rebalance? 16:17What portfolio fits 10 years to retire and 20–30 years of decumulation? 24:08Will the configurator shift to only Avantis/DFA funds in 2026? 30:37What does “inflation-adjusted fixed withdrawals” mean? 33:56How should I invest an inheritance for kids/grandkids ages 2–45? 38:21Ultimate Buy-and-Hold vs. two- or four-fund strategies — which is better? 49:03Should political conditions change retirement portfolio decisions? 59:12How do I find a fee-based/hourly advisor (Rhode Island question)? 1:05:56Should very conservative 91-year-olds move beyond bonds and cash? 1:13:28Part 1 of the AAII Q&A Series Part 2 of the AAII Q&A Series AAII trial membership offer (the ~$2 first month deal) Boot Camp series hub Fine-Tuning Your Asset Allocation table / lessonSound Investing / portfolio decade return tables — Fixed vs. Variable Withdrawal episode/article H-2A table referenced in Q9 Chris Pedersen Boot Camp presentation (Two-Fund for Life) Garrett Planning Network advisor directory HelloNectarine hourly advisor platform PlanVision / Mark Zoril reference

Recorded from our new home on Bainbridge Island and released on Thanksgiving, this episode is equal parts gratitude and practical investing help. I open with my annual tradition of writing a fresh Thanksgiving list—people, communities, and institutions that have shaped my life and this work. I’m especially thankful for you, the DIY investors who keep showing up to learn, ask thoughtful questions, and hopefully staying the course.I also share appreciation for the resources that support disciplined investing—Morningstar, the Bogleheads community, and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). After a recent AAII presentation (over 150 attendees), we ran out of time for a live Q&A. I promised to respond to every legitimate question, so this episode kicks off a multi-part series answering them in depth.Here are the first 12 AAII questions covered in today’s episode:(9:42) What alterations in portfolio construction do you recommend in transition from accumulation to distribution in order to maximize diversification of uncorrelated assets, safe withdrawal rates, and spending? ⁠Table h2a (21:21) I’m a huge fan of your U.S. two-fund portfolio. Why is diversification between large-cap growth and small-cap value so important, while diversification between VTSAX and AVUS (within the same asset class) is not? Should we diversify fund selection within the same asset class? Table K2b(26:49) Have you considered creating a quilt chart for the Ultimate Buy-and-Hold portfolios with a 70/30 U.S./international split? Table K1a and H2a and H2b(32:04) You appear to have avoided any mention of mid-cap. Should we be ignoring mid-cap funds?(33:35) What do you think about adding alternative investments to the portfolio (for example, managed futures)?(38:39) Are your recommendations for everyone, or does the game change when you have a pension for life?(43:07) I was fighting with the Zoom link and arrived 25 minutes into the presentation. Will a video recording be available to participants?(44:08) What would you expect the difference between the S&P 500 cap-weighted index (VFINX)and the S&P 500 equal-weighted index (VADAX) to be?(49:53) The four-fund portfolios are equal-weighted across their asset classes, which results in a value tilt overall. Why weigh them equally?(54:35) One might think that adding international large-cap growth and international small-cap value to the two-fund approach would improve results. Does international allocation mainly reduce volatility/drawdown length, or also increase returns? H2a and H2b(56:26) Can you buy DFA and Avantis funds at Charles Schwab?(58:40) What should you do if you have a lump sum to invest today, but current market highs make entry uncomfortable? https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/do-we-need-a-long-bear-market/

First, a big thank-you to everyone who joined me for the AAII presentation last Saturday. I appreciate your patience during my rocky Zoom start—and a special shout-out to Suzette Moskwa, who saved the day by running the slides!As promised, I’m following up on your chat comments and questions from the session. This week’s focus is on your insights; in the next couple of weeks, I’ll share a full Q&A edition covering listener questions on portfolio construction, diversification, and long-term investing strategy.Key Takeaways from This Week’s DiscussionETFs vs. Mutual Funds — Tax Efficiency MattersMutual funds often create higher annual taxes in taxable accounts. ETFs and index funds are more tax-efficient because of how they handle capital gains—saving investors up to 1% a year. Keep mutual funds inside IRAs to avoid unnecessary taxes.Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted PortfoliosThe Invesco Equal Weighted S&P 500 (RSP) holds the same 500 companies as the standard index but gives each stock equal weight. This creates different exposure and more turnover, yet the ETF version reduces the tax drag—a key advantage for long-term investors.Small-Cap Value Funds — Choosing the Right FitVBR (Vanguard) performs best when large-cap growth leads, while AVUV and DFSV outperform when smaller value companies rise. The lesson: size and style matter in long-term returns.The Power of Rebalancing & “Shannon’s Demon”Mentioned by Bill Yount from the Catching Up to FI podcast, Shannon’s Demon illustrates how periodic rebalancing can turn volatility into profit. By selling high and buying low, you can enhance long-term performance while keeping risk in check.Morningstar Ratings — Don’t Chase the StarsStar ratings mostly reflect recent trends, not future potential. Focus instead on the underlying asset class and decades of evidence, not last year’s winners.Small-Cap Value Slump — Patience Pays OffSmall-cap value has struggled this year, but historically it offers one of the best long-term premiums. Remember: asset class selection drives up to 99% of overall portfolio performance.Risk Parity Portfolios — Balancing Risk the Smart WayPaul compared traditional diversification to risk parity, which balances exposure across stocks, bonds, and commodities. He prefers government bonds over commodities since bonds generate income and often rise when stocks fall.Diversifying Within an Asset ClassInstead of going “all or nothing,” you can hold multiple ETFs—like AVUV and DFSV—for extra balance within a category. Just keep the lineup manageable for your brokerage or platform.Factor Investing — What Really Drives ReturnsThe strongest long-term drivers are size and value. Momentum and quality can help, but smaller, cheaper companies historically deliver the best rewards.Growth Funds & Ten-Year PerformanceTen-year snapshots can mislead. From 2000 to 2025, small-cap value funds far outperformed growth and the S&P 500, showing the value premium remains powerful across full market cycles.S&P 500 vs. Total Market — Nearly Identical Over TimeSince 1928, returns differ by only 0.1%. The S&P’s recent edge comes mainly from a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, not fundamental differences in the indexes.Hiring an Advisor — When It’s Worth ItA skilled fiduciary advisor can help manage emotions, discipline, and rebalancing. If you struggle to stay consistent, professional guidance may be worth far more than the fee.The DIY Investor Myth — Overcoming Human Biases“No one cares more about your money than you” sounds good, but behavioral biases—recency, overconfidence, and loss aversion—can derail results. Automation or a trusted advisor can protect you. For more insight, see Paul Hayes’ free book Spending Your Way to Wealth, especially the appendix on 48 investor biases.Thank you again for your time, attention, and thoughtful participation. Despite the technical hiccups, your engagement made this an incredibly rewarding session!

Paul Merriman welcomes back Chris Patterson, Director of Research, and Daryl Balls, Director of Analytics, for another thoughtful roundtable discussion. These three “underpaid volunteers” reflect on how far the Merriman Financial Education Foundation has come — and where it’s headed next. Together, they cover everything from new educational tools to a data-driven look at one of the most common investor questions: Has small-cap value lost its punch?The episode revisits this hot topic with evidence from decades of historical data, including several key Merriman Tables that illustrate why small-cap value (SCV) continues to deserve a place in long-term portfolios.📊 Quilt Chart: Year-by-Year Performance of the Major Asset Classes Created by Daryl Balls, this visual “quilt” shows how the four major U.S. equity asset classes — large-cap blend, large-cap value, small-cap blend, and small-cap value — have rotated in and out of favor since 1928. The randomness of short-term returns underscores the importance of diversification and patience. Despite long stretches of average performance, small-cap value’s cumulative results remain powerful. ➡️ View the Quilt Chart on PaulMerriman.com📈 Table G-1b: Fine-Tuning Table — S&P 500 vs U.S. SCV Equity Portfolio Outperformance Prepared by Daryl Balls, this 54-year comparison (1970–2024) demonstrates how small-cap value has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 over time. The two rightmost columns — highlighting rolling 15-year and 20-year outperformance — are especially compelling, showing that even after periods of apparent weakness, SCV regains its strength. ➡️ Explore Table G-1b: Fine-Tuning S&P vs SCV📉 Tables B1, H2, H2A, and D1.4: Core Bootcamp Comparisons From the Foundation’s Sound Investing Bootcamp series, these tables reveal how diversified equity portfolios have performed versus the S&P 500, both in accumulation and distribution phases. They help investors see that broad diversification — especially adding small-cap value — historically improves returns and risk-adjusted outcomes.Table B1: All-Equity Portfolio Returns by Asset Class (1928–2024)Table H2: 60/40 Portfolio Distribution Outcomes (1970–2024)Table H2A: All-Equity Portfolio Distribution Outcomes (1970–2024)Table D1.4: Historical Equity Premiums and Drawdowns➡️ See all Bootcamp TablesPaul, Chris, and Daryl explain that small-cap value premiums come in bursts — often following years of average performance. As Paul notes, SCV has had multiple 15- to 20-year stretches of breaking even with the S&P 500, followed by explosive 3- to 10-year “catch-up” periods that deliver outsized gains. The data in Table G-1b makes this clear: over 54 years, SCV continues to deliver a meaningful performance edge.As Daryl reminds listeners, “those two columns on the right are powerful.” They show that long-term investors who remain patient — and maintain a disciplined exposure to small-cap value — have been well rewarded.Patience is the premium. Factor returns are unpredictable year to year, but history rewards persistence.Diversification is defense. Combining S&P 500 with small-cap value reduces regret during both booms and busts.Data over drama. The Foundation’s free tools, calculators, and tables are designed to help you make rational, informed choices for the long term.🎧 Listen now on Spotify or YouTube to hear Paul, Chris, and Daryl discuss new tools like the Two Funds for Life Calculator, updates to the Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations, and their vision for the next generation of financial education.Featured Tables and ChartsWhy Small-Cap Value Still Packs a PunchEducational Takeaways

Watch YouTube video here.Paul Merriman and Chris Pedersen tackle your biggest questions—from simplifying portfolios and picking best-in-class ETFs to understanding equal-weighted funds, tax efficiency, and how much small-cap value to own. They dig into factor investing (size, value, quality, profitability, momentum), why reversion to the mean matters, and how to think like an owner—not a speculator. Plus: mentors, work-life balance, and the real risk investors face.Chapters00:00 – Intro & Mentors05:07 – Portfolio Simplification10:13 – Work-Life Balance11:39 – Which ETFs will outperform?20:15 – Importance of Quality22:45 – Equal-Weighted Funds26:14 – History: how long is enough?29:58 – Cost of public indexing33:30 – Equal-weight fund tax vs. ETF35:21 – How much small-cap value?39:47 – Why three EM ETFs?42:28 – “All Avantis” risk?49:45 – Technology sector history & mean reversion53:00 – Be an owner, not a speculator55:27 – OutroKey Takeaways“Best” ETF ≠ next year’s top performer—seek consistent factor exposure, low costs, broad holdings, and tax efficiency.Equal-weighting boosts small/value exposure but can increase turnover and tax drag; pairing large-cap blend with small-cap value can be more efficient.Decide small-cap value allocation by temperament (common range: 10–50% of equities when pairing with S&P 500/target date).Index approach vs. index label: DFA/Avantis are systematic and rules-based without telegraphing rebalances.Think like an owner: over decades, earnings—not sentiment—drive returns.Resources• Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations (2025): https://www.paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-etf-recommendations-2025#gsc.tab=0• Sound Investing Portfolios, Returns & Risks: https://www.paulmerriman.com/sound-investing-portfolios#gsc.tab=0• “Tune Out the Noise” (DFA Documentary): https://youtu.be/T98825bzcKw?si=kFMugnSSCn2E76sI