EP220: SoH Crisis Takeaways: Top Surprises and Non-Surprises

EP220: SoH Crisis Takeaways: Top Surprises and Non-Surprises

July 11, 2026 · 20 min

About this episode

The episode discusses key surprises and non-surprises from the ongoing Strait of Hormuz Crisis, focusing on long-term implications for the oil market and economy.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube ( here ). STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts ( here ), Spotify ( here ), or your favorite podcast player app. DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript using the blue Download button below. We are back from a week off celebrating America’s 250th birthday and ahead of some upcoming travel over the remainder of July. We are planning to do a series of videos over the next few weeks on our takeaways at this juncture of the ongoing Strait of Hormuz Crisis. As usual, our focus will be on the longer-term themes and implications, rather than attempting a play-by-play of current events. In fact, as we are recording this on Wednesday July 8, there are renewed military strikes happening, President Trump has been quoted as saying the 14-point MOU signed in mid-June is over, and oil prices are rallying in response. Going forward, we expect lots of twists and turns for crude oil, refined products, and LNG markets as regional turmoil dials up and dials down. It is all part of our broader Geopolitical Super Vol mega theme. Even so, there are some long-term takeaways from this crisis that are emerging, which is…

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