Super-Spiked Podcast

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This week we provide our latest thoughts on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis and the news of a “peace deal” having been reached between the U.S. and Iran. We recorded this on Wednesday, June 17, two days ahead of the expected signing on Friday, June 19. We think these comments will hold up even if there are any unexpected developments prior to Saturday publication. If not, we will follow up on Twitter-X and LinkedIn. 0:00 Introduction 0:43 Lee Raymond – Greatest CEO of My Career 4:24 SoH Crisis – Big Picture Thoughts On Oil Markets 8:07 SoH Crisis – Crude Oil S/D 19:12 War & Peace – USA vs Iran 21:38 Long-Term Energy Macro Implications 25:55 WWLRD If He Was An Active CEO Now? 31:10 On A Personal Note – A New Top Life Moment 📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We are just back from nine days on the road across the western U.S. and British Columbia. A key theme we highlighted at both the Goldman Sachs energy conference in Miami earlier this month and at a CIBC dinner panel last week in Whistler was the need for companies to take risk. Three points we discuss in the video podcast: (1) Why the “take risk” messaging now?: (2) The distinction between large-cap and SMID-cap risk taking; and (3) SMID-cap opportunities.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.* Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.Last week’s video podcast was a look back on our Big Themes for 2025 that we highlighted in January (here). We did pretty well with the 3 main themes, but not so good on 4 sub-topics we teased. We will aim to be better targeted on what we highlight for 2026. This week we evaluate how we did on our “Top 10 Tactical Calls” that we published in late January (here). We use a “Good Call” or “Bad Call” framework to assess how we did. Spoiler alert: Overall we did well, but were far from perfect. Finally, we do a broader assessment on how we are feeling about major Super-Spiked themes and topic areas after what has now been 4 years of publishing. What are we proud of, what if anything are we not, and what are we thinking looking ahead. We heard from many of you that appreciated that we did a proper assessment of our calls. Someone even said we were a tough self-grader. It baffles us why everyone doesn’t take this approach. Companies put out targets or promises, Wall Street analysts make calls and publish outlook reports, academia and policy shops do their own version of opinion making. All those groups, in our humble opinion, would benefit from doing their own self-assessment. People like them! It’s popular. It builds credibility and accountability. This will be our final Super-Spiked of 2025. We will return most likely on January 10th. On behalf of everyone associated with Super-Spiked and Veriten, we wish you and your families a Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and a great Holiday Season!!!🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email.* Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We are coming to you this week from the Middle East. We are in the middle of a great trip that has been put together by the Center on Global Energy Policy, where we are an advisory board member. As of this recording, we have spent time in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh, with 2 more stops still to come. We are going to have to keep this video short amidst a packed schedule, so will limit our comments to some quick macro takeaways on (1) oil markets; (2) China’s manufacturing dominance; and (3) other energy sources.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email.* Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

In last week’s Super-Spiked (here), we wrote about Power being the third super-cycle in our lifetime. In this week’s short video podcast, we wanted to share some thoughts on how the early days of the China-BRICs expansion compares and contrasts with the current AI-driven mania and its impact on power markets. We are calling this “Then and Now” with the aim of trying to take the best lessons from the last super-cycle so we can be better prepared and hopefully do a better job navigating the current one. We have five points to make:(1) Global GDP acceleration coming?Will we see an acceleration in global GDP back above 3.5% and possibly 4% versus the slower 3% or so that we have been seeing in recent years? One of the big things most oil analysts got wrong early in the China/BRICs period was that global GPD was accelerating, in that example led by China but ultimately spilling over to many other parts of the world. Today, we see signs that energy usage in both China and the United States is on-track to be better than many had feared for 2025. That’s not the same thing as saying we are back to boom times like 20+ years ago. But it does bear watching.(2) All commodity areas benefitted from the China/BRICs expansionOil most notably, but natural gas, coal, steel, copper, etc., all had their own period of strong performance. It is our assessment that oil was the most important of the China/BRICs commodities given its size and global criticality. This go round we see oil as merely a beneficiary of a power super cycle, not its driver. And to be clear since some of you have asked, oil markets will benefit from general economic expansion that will come from a Power Surge as well as the increased construction activity from building data centers. We are not arguing for oil-fired power generation per se, though perhaps we do get some of that as well. Diesel generators come to mind.(3) Model out a super-cycle on revenues and earningsFor winning sectors, make an effort to examine what top of cycle conditions can truly look like. As an example, at a time oil prices were around $40/bbl, we ran scenarios as to what $100/bbl oil would like, which is very different than the +/- $10 sensitivities most analysts would run. For some of you, that may not mean much. What we are saying is play-out as best as you can what a multi-year bull market looks like and don’t anchor yourself to what was a different recent past. It is not about placing a 100% probability on that upside coming true, but if the probability is greater than zero, model it as best as you can.(4) Figure out the signposts for peakTry to figure out the signposts for what would truly cause the cycle to peak and then turn. In the China/BRICs area, we sought to model demand destruction pricing which we originally estimated would occur at $105/bbl. That was partly correct. It certainly helped frame the oil price upside. But for oil and gas equities, we did not give adequate consideration to what we now call our “Quadrilateral of Death” which means that peak return on capital for the sector was what mattered most for oil and gas equities, not the raw oil price peak. As we noted in last week’s post, we suspect the Quadrilateral of Death is not the correct analytical framework for most power-oriented sectors. We need to figure out what is, so we can better assess when this super-cycle has truly reached its half-life. We think we have some time to figure this out. (5) Navigating volatilityThe final area to think through is how as an investor or corporate do you want to navigate volatility. A great example was the Deep Seek sell off last December. I am sure there will be many more to come where the first thought from people will be “power theme had a great run, it’s now over, sell the stocks”. My personal style is the buy-and-hold long term approach and trying to figure out the ultimate super-cycle peak. For those of you that are truly good short-term traders, have at it. Everyone else, you’re going to have to decide for yourself. For corporates, the trick is often understanding what the long-term steady state will be and your ability to adapt with the mix of assets and balance sheet that you have if conditions are materially different than expected. An example is that some companies and businesses adapted faster and better to the move from $100/bbl to a sustained post-super-cycle $50-$60/bbl range than did others. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We are going to go back to the future this week to discuss the seemingly verboten topic of “sustainability.” Believe it or not, it is actually one of the most asked for topics at the various industry, board and management meetings we have spoken at this Fall. It’s never the first question and usually comes towards the end when a brave sole that likely works in this area asks “where do you think the topic of sustainability is headed?” As with everything we do, our focus is on how energy companies should think about the topic with a view toward the decade ahead—not today, not just the next 2.5 years, but what will stand the test time and the inevitable pendulum swings from what investors and politicians claim they want.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email.* Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com