EP98: A New Era of Geopolitical Super Vol

About this episode

The episode discusses the evolution of the Super Vol commodity macro framework in the context of geopolitical volatility and economic cycles.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube ( here ). STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts ( here ), Spotify ( here ), or your favorite podcast player app. DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below. As we teased in last week’s video, we want to expand on the evolution of our Super Vol commodity macro framework to explicitly rebrand it Geopolitical Super Vol. Since Russia-Ukraine, we have resisted the super-cycle framing that we think implies a smoothness to an upcycle like seen during the 2000s China-BRICs expansion period. The current environment is more like the 1970s—arguably a super-cycle, but one with a lot more choppiness and stress along the way. The current decade is shaping up to be a modern version of that era, with some important differences. Although we are calling it Geopolitical Super Vol, we want to be clear on a few conclusions: * We believe structural profitability and opportunities for growth are significant for a broad range of companies involved in traditional energy, new energy technology, the power value chain, and a host of raw materials. * We believe the…

People in this episode

Host: Arjun Murti

Topics covered

• geopolitical volatility
• commodity markets
• energy sector
• economic downturns
• super-cycle
• investment opportunities

Keywords

• geopolitical super vol
• commodity spikes
• energy technology
• economic cycles
• S&P 500
• investment growth
• structural profitability

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: S&P 500, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube

Places: Russia, Ukraine

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