SoH Crisis Drags On, But Some Thematic Clarity Emerging (EP216)
About this episode
The episode discusses the ongoing SoH Crisis and emerging themes in energy and geopolitical volatility.
We are now recording an audio version of written posts that we will upload to Apple, Spotify, and YouTube, which you can listen to by clicking the play button above. As the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) Crisis completes its third month and on-again/off-again peace talks drag on, we are starting to see the outlines of various structural themes emerging, and, as importantly, some that are not. Thematically we see the following: * Power Surge! Our Power Surge! super-cycle theme has not only not been knocked off track by the SoH Crisis, but has likely been enhanced based on “the four Ds” of pragmatic energy policy orientation we discuss below. Recently completed 1Q 2026 earnings season shows the AI (artificial intelligence) and broader digital transformation theme is as strong as ever. * Geopolitical Super Vol . Geopolitical Super Vol remains our commodity macro framework, in particular for crude oil prices. Since Russia-Ukraine and through SoH-to-date, we have resisted crude oil super-cycle framings while also, importantly, rejecting perma bear doom-and-gloom. The unforgiving math of global oil demand being forced down to circa 95 million b/d of supply from around 105 million b/d…
People in this episode
Host: Arjun Murti
Topics covered
- SoH Crisis
- energy policy
- geopolitical volatility
- oil prices
- digital transformation
- recession
Keywords
- SoH Crisis
- energy policy
- geopolitical volatility
- oil prices
- digital transformation
- recession
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: Apple, Spotify, YouTube
Places: Strait of Hormuz
More episodes of Super-Spiked Podcast
- EP217: Long-Takes From The Road: Vegas, Vienna, ZeroHedge, and Oil Macro Crunch Time
- EP215: Long-Takes: What can E&Ps learn from US refiners amidst a Geopolitical Super Vol macro backdrop?
- EP100: Immutable Themes and Reframing Macro Scenarios
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