Christmas Present

Christmas Present

From Tea and Crumpets by Will Brown and Adam Eagleston

December 23, 2025 · 41 min · Episode 94

About this episode

The episode evaluates the current state of the economy through a Dickensian lens, discussing inflation, wage growth, and stock market predictions.

We take a detour into the Dickensian in evaluating the state of the economy. First, the recent inflation print, which showed a significant decline in the level of price increases, was a fiction worthy of Dickens, with the majority of the data simply made up as a result of the government shutdown. Setting that aside, since 2021, wage growth has not kept pace with inflation for food, shelter, and services, though we can count our blessings that at least alcohol prices have not increased as much… Challenges face the Fed chair (both current and yet to come), and managing a deteriorating labor market and persistently higher prices presents a conundrum. The Fed is simply not getting what it wants at present in terms of rate cuts translating to a lower yield on the 10-year Treasury, and with deficits soaring in spite of a growing economy, some tough choices will have to be made. However, stocks have proven remarkably resilient, and predictions from most Wall Street firms argue for a continued move higher supported by AI, solid growth, fiscal stimulus from tax policy, and further rate cuts. However, the math is a little challenging; to cite one example: The S&P reaches over 7,700 by…

People in this episode

Hosts: Will Brown, Adam Eagleston

Topics covered

Keywords

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Fed, Wall Street, S&P

Books & works: Dickens

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