Tea and Crumpets

In this episode of Tea & Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston break down a market that continues to send conflicting signals. They examine rising oil and commodity prices, renewed inflation concerns, climbing bond yields, government debt, and growing intervention in markets that are becoming increasingly difficult to price. They also look at the massive influence of AI and data center spending on the economy, including rising power demand, utility infrastructure needs, and the effect of private AI investments on Big Tech earnings. With stocks still holding near record highs despite mounting pressures, Will and Adam discuss whether current earnings growth and valuations are as durable as they appear. The conversation also turns to the risks created by market concentration, increased competition across the technology sector, and the potential for government intervention to delay necessary market adjustments. Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation, and enormous capital spending, they consider where risks may be building and where investors may still find opportunities. In this episode: Rising energy prices and inflation pressure Higher bond yields and growing government debt AI, data centers, and surging power demand Big Tech earnings and AI valuation concerns Market intervention and distorted price signals Where investors may still find opportunity Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

After Thanksgiving, we take a look at poultry, especially how dove-ish the Fed is now expected to be, a sharp reversal from a few weeks ago. We also discuss the odds-on favorite for the next Fed chair and how his political leanings may (or may not) influence which direction the Fed takes. Recent employment data has been lackluster, to put it mildly, which is forcing the Fed's hand as it relates to continued cuts. To wit: Total change in private employment – Negative 32k Manufacturing and construction – Negative 27k Small businesses – Negative 100k Wage growth, especially for lower income households, is rapidly slowing, and those households spend, on average, over 70% of income on food, shelter, and transportation, all of which are seeing price increases that exceed wage growth. It seems like more pressure could be imminent on both wages and employment as AI continues to make inroads. We take a detour away from economics into the carnage in the cryptocurrency space and what it may mean for certain types of companies that have built their business models on owning crypto. In the second half of the show, we juxtapose the threat of AI for employees with the opportunity for employers. AI has been the savior in terms of growth and price appreciation for the stock market. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, earnings for technology and communications stocks have grown 121% versus a mere 27% for all other sectors. That trend is expected to continue in 2026, with the Mag 7 forecasted to grow over 20% versus 11% for the other 493 stocks. We also discuss just how big the Mag 7 are, with some individual members of the group larger than entire sectors of the economy from a market cap perspective. We discuss whether that is healthy (or sustainable) and why a broadening market is potentially overdue (not to mention healthy). Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In this episode, we talk a pay homage to Will's mentor by focusing on value and discipline, two things very much out of favor in the market at present. It is easy to see why as in the wake of five consecutive months of market gains, statistically the odds favor further appreciation. Moreover, even though valuations are high, historically valuation has proven a sub-optimal timing tool as it relates to near-term returns. With the Fed now more inclined to look more at weakening employment versus inflation, accommodative monetary policy seems supportive of valuation even at these elevated levels. In terms of what has been working recently, it is a strange combination of the largest technology stocks, which are now involved in myriad deals reminiscent of the late 1990s in terms of vendor financing and capital spending, and speculative retail favorites, many of which have no revenue, much less positive earnings. We still find opportunities and lower valuations among smaller and mid-cap stocks, especially those that are higher quality. However, since 2010, we have seen two very different markets. In the wake of the financials crisis, from August 2010 through August 2010, high quality stocks outperformed low-quality stocks by a factor of almost 3x. However, since that time, low quality stocks are up 140% versus high quality gaining only half that much. Retail investor speculation and the gamification of "investing" are contributing factors. We also discuss the challenge facing consumers in terms of housing affordability, especially as the lower and middle income cohorts experiencing declining wage growth . To simply return to pre-Covid levels, it would take one of three things, or a combination thereof: Home prices fall 38%. Incomes to rise 60%. Mortgage rates to decline to 2.35%. With the first two seemingly unlikely, can the Fed get there with rate cuts, or is some form of yield curve control required. We are hoping for a Red October on the baseball diamond but not in the market, but only time will tell. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In this episode, Will and Adam examine former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich's comments comparing today to the Gilded Age. We acknowledge there are several similarities, including increasing wealth disparity, the emergence of disruptive technology, and widespread commingling of government with business. We specifically discuss the recent discussion around the government taking stake in public companies, which, though has a precedent, was used in the past during times of financial crisis, i.e., to keep automakers afloat during the financial crisis. We discuss the (until just recently) ebullient vibes in the stock market, and why some of the forefront of the AI revolution are starting to sound a little more cautious about what AI can deliver in the near-term. However, that has not stopped investors from returning to familiar favorites from the 2021 run-up, with this rally's best performers including: Non-profitable tech Most shorted stocks Meme stocks With Fed chair Powell on tap for Jackson Hole, we look at the recent Fed minutes, which indicating a focus more on inflation than jobs, and why that could change if job revisions continue to be revised lower. However, with the inflation effect of tariffs expected to shift from businesses to consumers soon, will the Fed have the flexibility to cut rates as much as investors currently believe? With both anecdotes and hard data indicating a struggling consumer, the Fed is in a tough spot and under continuing political pressure. We conclude with why it is important to remain systematic and focused on long-term investing success and resist the temptation of the continued gamification of stock trading, with platforms like Robin Hood now exploring the addition of traditional sports wagering alongside retail investment accounts. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In the first half, we look at the OBBBA, and what its passage may mean for investors, as well as for the government's balance sheet. Debt from baseline projection of 154% of GDP to upwards of 200% of GDP with the OBBBA. Deficits from around 6% of GDP to over 7% with the OBBBA. Despite the ballooning deficits and debt, markets are celebrating the prospect of fiscal stimulus, as well as favorable tax treatments on investment as well as other corporate goodies. In the second half, we discuss President Trump's penmanship as it relates to his letter to Chair Powell on interest rates and why the "hottest country in the world" should "LOWER THE RATE!!!" We also look at the risk associated with the loss of Fed independence due to either political pressure or a dual role for the Treasury Secretary. At some point, we finally get around to talking about the stock market, and note the historic rebound in equities in Q2, which was the largest in record by some measures. The biggest winners were growth stocks, which led value by a wider margin than during the tech bubble, and retail favorites, which are often highly speculative names; these soared over 60% in Q2. We also look at the expectations embedded in markets at this point in terms of earnings and multiples, and what effect passive investing is having on markets as over half of U.S. fund assets are now passively invested. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In this episode, we have a no-holds-barred conversation featuring Kalee Kreider, a seasoned political strategist and expert in climate policy. Together, we dig into the uncomfortable truths about markets, politics, and the economic pressures facing everyday Americans. From election forecasts and the appeal of government gridlock to the harsh realities of student debt, the conversation is unscripted, unfiltered, and unexpectedly funny. We explore why investors often prefer a slow-moving Congress, how middle-income families are still reeling from financial burdens nobody talks about, and why economic narratives need more honesty and a lot less spin. What You'll Learn: Why political gridlock can actually calm the markets The ongoing impact of student debt on families earning six figures What's really driving midterm election outcomes—and what to expect next How public perception influences both policy and portfolio performance Why clarity in communication is just as valuable as a solid balance sheet Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In the first half, we discuss Liberation Day, the violent reaction of, initially, the stock market and, subsequently, the bond market. In terms of the bond market, we look at the frantic trading from last week that ultimately forced the administration to announce a 90-day pause on most tariffs. Who holds U.S. debt? The answer might surprise you: Total debt - $34 trillion Domestic holders - $26 trillion Japan - $1.1 trillion China - $820 billion (though may be understated as offshore entities, i.e., other countries, are likely being used as well) Other countries - $5.3 trillion In the second half, we discuss the volatile reaction of equities to headlines. Post-Liberation Day, over a 10% decline in two days. The third largest daily gain ever for the S&P 500 on April 9th (when the 90-day pause was announced). While many pundits cite such a large up day as being a portent of further gains, which is true historically, we put it in context of valuation, and the 20.7x P/E the market currently has is well above the 12.7x multiple the market had on average after other large gains. Similarly, we look at expectations for earnings, what we have heard so far (JP Morgan noted deteriorating credit trends while Wells cited resilient spending), and what we think we might hear from companies as earnings season gets into full swing (hint: prepare for the word "uncertainty" to be a common refrain). Finally, we discuss the administration's stated objectives of bringing back manufacturing and reducing trade deficits. What is not often mentioned is that this approach overlooks service surpluses, and is causing a sharp decline in foreign tourism, which may jeopardize these surpluses. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In the first half, Will and Adam discuss the rapid deterioration in consumer sentiment and how it is cutting across both economic and political divides, albeit to differing degrees. Some sentiment indicators, especially concerns over job loss, are at levels normally seen during a recession, in part due to the uncertainty over tariffs with large trading partners like Canada. Another concern is spending cuts. We look past the headlines to see that cuts have not yet taken hold, though with 85% of job growth in 2024 attributable to government spending, we could be in for a volatile transition period as a result of the "detox" the administration is seeking. In the second half, we look at the recent (albeit brief) market correction, and put it in historical context: Since 1980, the average yearly decline for the S&P 500 has been 14%. There have been about 117 10% corrections since 1928, so around one per year. Statistically, a 10% correction turns into a bear market around 25% of the time, and that normally occurs when the economy dips into a recession. The rest of the time, the market recovers in about eight months, on average. Although modest, the 10% correction is equivalent to 12% of GDP. That type of hit to wealth has contributed to a recession in about half of the prior 12 occurrences. With the Magnificent Seven, on balance, lagging this year, we look at the prospect of a broader market showing the benefits of diversification, not to mention the strong start to the year for non-U.S. stocks, which have been buoyed by the shift in spending priorities in both developed and emerging markets. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.