About this episode

Simon Erickson analyzes the recent performance and future prospects of The Trade Desk stock amidst increasing competition and changing market dynamics.

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) is down 67% over the last 12 months — one of the biggest falls from grace for a stock that was once a Wall Street darling. Simon Erickson digs deep into Q1 2025 earnings, the slowing revenue growth (from 25% to just 12% year-over-year), and the second quarter guidance of only 8% top-line growth. Is this a temporary macro headwind — or is something more structural breaking down inside the programmatic advertising industry?Simon breaks down the key competitive threat: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has entered The Trade Desk's backyard with its own demand-side platform, undercutting TTD's ~20% take rate with pricing closer to 10-12%. Plus, major customers like Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) are now diversifying away from exclusive Trade Desk relationships. But here's the bull case — The Trade Desk is still the only fully independent, open-internet DSP in a $1 trillion global advertising market, and CEO Jeff Green is launching agentic AI campaigns and Open Path to dramatically reduce the inefficiency that costs advertisers 45 cents of every ad dollar today.Simon's discounted cash flow analysis suggests TTD shares — currently trading around $21-22 —…

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