About this episode

Simon Erickson analyzes Rocket Lab's stock valuation using a discounted cash flow model.

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) has been a 20-bagger on the 7investing scorecard, but at $150/share today, is it still a buy? 7investing founder Simon Erickson walks through the 11th iteration of his full discounted cash flow model, projecting Rocket Lab's revenues across three divisions: Electron launches, the upcoming Neutron rocket, and Space Systems manufacturing, all the way out to 2041. The bottom line: using a 10.3% weighted average cost of capital and conservative assumptions, Simon arrives at an intrinsic value of $45.12 per share, up significantly from $27 in last year's model, but still well below today's market price.The bull case for the long-term thesis remains intact. Electron is on pace for 30 launches in 2026, scaling toward 50 annually by 2030. Neutron, expected to launch by year-end at ~$55 million per launch versus Electron's $9 million, represents the single biggest margin step-change in the company's history. And Rocket Lab's total backlog has already jumped from $1.8 billion at year-end 2025 to $2.2 billion in just one quarter, with Simon projecting it reaches $4.3 billion by end of 2026 as Golden Dome, Space Force NSSL, and Space Development Agency contracts come…

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