PMI in Focus: High Frequency Signals for an Uncertain Business Environment
About this episode
The episode discusses the latest signals from the global PMI data and their implications for the world economy amidst uncertainty.
In this episode of The Decisive , host Paul Smith is joined by senior economists Andrew Harker and Phil Smith to discuss the latest signals from the global Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data and what they reveal about the direction of the world economy. The conversation revisits key themes from the previous PMI episode, including stockpiling, uncertainty, supply chain disruption and inflation risks linked to the tensions in the Middle East and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The economists explain how recent PMI data suggest some easing in inflation pressures and uncertainty, although both remain elevated compared with historical norms. The episode also explores why high-frequency PMI data can be especially valuable during periods of economic volatility, helping businesses, policymakers and forecasters assess turning points before slower-moving official data becomes available. Paul discusses how PMI signals can be combined with broader macroeconomic projections to provide a clearer view of both near-term conditions and longer-term trends. Other topics include the outlook for the eurozone economy, global export conditions, the continued impact of tariffs, and…
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