The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

In this episode of The Decisive podcast, host Kristen Hallam shares highlights from a recent S&P Global Market Intelligence client webinar on the forces reshaping procurement strategy. The conversation explores how prolonged disruption in the Middle East is moving beyond energy markets and into broader supply chains, affecting shipping, chemicals, metals and industrial inputs. S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Emily Crowley, Gregory Muller and Maxwell Clarke examine why oil prices may stay higher for longer, why LNG markets are unlikely to repeat the extremes of 2022, and how AI-driven data center expansion is tightening capacity for transformers, electrical equipment, cooling systems and related components. This episode is designed for procurement professionals, supply chain leaders, corporate strategists, market intelligence teams and anyone tracking how geopolitical disruption, energy markets and AI investment are reshaping industrial input costs and equipment availability. What listeners will learn Why procurement teams may not see meaningful price relief even as demand softens in parts of the economy How inventory dynamics, shipping disruption and tariff uncertainty are shaping supplier behavior Why data center construction is creating sustained pressure on electrical and cooling equipment markets How companies can think about risk mitigation, contract management and inventory strategy in a constrained supply environment More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Commodity Price Watch: June 2026 US retailers forecast early — and brief — peak shipping season Picture This: Mexico's Avocado Exporters Look Beyond US Market For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report) Key takeaways from April 2026 Pricing and Purchasing seminar briefings Credits: Host: Emily Crowley Guests: Gregory Muller, Maxwell Clarke Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, we examine the future of the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement at a moment of heightened political uncertainty and rising strategic tension across North America. With trilateral trade reaching roughly $1.8 trillion in the 12 months to August 2025, the stakes are high for governments, investors, and manufacturers alike as the 2026 review process unfolds. Drawing on insights from S&P Global Market Intelligence's Country Risk team, the discussion explores why North American supply chains have remained broadly resilient since the USMCA took effect, even through the pandemic and recent tariff shifts. Mexico continues to benefit from regionalization and reshoring trends, while the US is increasingly focused on trade deficits, investment screening, and the role of mainland Chinese firms using North America as a production platform. Canada, meanwhile, faces a more difficult negotiating environment, shaped by tariffs, political friction, and growing divergence with Washington on industrial policy, data rules, and trade alignment. The conversation also revisits four possible paths for the agreement's future, with a growing emphasis on annual renewals and incremental changes rather than a single long-term resolution. That approach could preserve US leverage over both Mexico and Canada, but it would also prolong uncertainty for businesses seeking predictability in cross-border investment and sourcing decisions. The experts assess where the toughest disputes are likely to emerge, including automotive rules of origin, labor standards, agriculture, energy policy, and data regulation. They also point to lower-risk areas such as trade facilitation and regulatory harmonization where technical progress may still be possible. A central theme is the shifting nature of the agreement itself. Rather than a traditional free trade framework, the experts describe the USMCA as evolving into a form of managed trade, one in which tariffs remain part of the landscape and negotiations increasingly serve broader strategic and political objectives. Trade policy is now intersecting more visibly with security concerns, domestic politics, and geopolitical competition, especially in the US-Mexico relationship. The episode closes with a look at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the security landscape across the US, Canada, and Mexico. The experts assess terrorism, cartel violence, and protest risks around the tournament, concluding that while major disruptions are not the baseline expectation, authorities are preparing for a wide range of threats and operational challenges across all three host countries. If you're looking for a clear, forward-looking view of where North American trade talks may be headed — and what the next phase of USMCA negotiations could mean for supply chains, investment strategy, and regional stability — listen now. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Canada readies ambitious legislation to reform supply chain Picture This: World Cup Security Risks MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 23 - FIFA World Cup 2026: Global Media Rights, Ads vs. Sponsors, and Streaming Wars Click here to sign up for our monthly Geopolitical and Economic Risk newsletter For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Assessing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement ahead of 2026 review Mexico, US hold first round of USMCA negotiations Mexi-Corridor: Transit route to connect the Pacific and Atlantic oceans Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: John Raines, Jose Enrique Sevilla-Macip Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

Artificial intelligence is no longer a future story — it is already shaping how companies invest, how governments respond, and how labor markets evolve. But adoption is unfolding unevenly, with major differences across sectors, firm sizes, and regions. In this episode, taken from a May 13 client webinar, we take a global look at the realities of AI adoption and its economic consequences. The discussion spans developed markets such as Germany, the UK, and Spain, where adoption is more advanced and often tied to productivity gains and workforce consolidation, as well as emerging economies including Brazil, India, and countries across Sub-Saharan Africa, where AI is more likely to complement labor and support output growth. Our experts also explore the widening gap between large enterprises and smaller firms. Larger companies are better positioned to deploy tailored, enterprise-wide AI strategies, while smaller businesses tend to adopt off-the-shelf tools more gradually and for narrower use cases. At the same time, the labor-market effects remain nuanced: routine tasks are being automated, demand is rising for roles in AI development, software engineering, data analytics, and operational support, and AI-driven layoffs remain limited relative to broader macroeconomic pressures. A key focus is the infrastructure and execution challenge facing frontier markets. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, unstable power grids, reliance on diesel generation, foreign-exchange liquidity constraints, and elevated operating costs are limiting the productivity gains that AI and data-center investment might otherwise deliver. In some markets, operating costs are inflated by 30% to 40%, underscoring the gap between AI ambition and implementation reality. The discussion concludes with a forward-looking assessment of AI's long-term impact: near-term efficiency gains are likely to outpace workforce displacement, but over time AI could reshape labor demand more fundamentally, with significant implications for growth, competitiveness, and job creation. If you're looking for a data-informed, globally comparative view of how AI is being adopted in practice — and what business leaders, investors, and policymakers should watch next — listen now. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Picture this: AI rush sparks massive increase in US high-tech imports PMI data and commentary Click here to read our full report on 2026 strategic themes For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Impact of AI investment on performance and labor dynamics Key takeaways from April 2026 Pricing and Purchasing seminar briefings SSA investment in data centers: Macroeconomic upside depends on deliverability Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: Sophie Malin, Pollyanna De Lima, Alisa Strobel Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam explores the murky world of maritime identity manipulation—a growing threat that's reshaping global shipping, sanctions enforcement, and international trade. Joined by maritime risk and compliance expert Jeremy Domballe, Kristen unpacks how vessels can alter their digital, physical, and legal identities to operate undetected on the world's oceans. From "zombie ships" reusing the identities of long-scrapped vessels to the physical "whitewashing" of ship names, Kristen and Jeremy reveal the methods bad actors use to evade sanctions, access restricted markets, and profit from illicit trade. They also examine the risks this deception poses to financial institutions, insurers, ship owners, and governments—highlighting why trust in vessel identity is foundational to the entire maritime ecosystem. Listeners will gain insight into the latest trends in ID spoofing, including the manipulation of AIS signals, GNSS jamming, and unintentional identity errors that can create confusion across continents. The episode concludes with practical guidance on due diligence, technological countermeasures, and the importance of vigilance for anyone exposed to the maritime domain. Discover why, in today's shipping world, not every vessel is what it seems—and what you can do to stay one step ahead. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Transshipment: Frequently Asked Questions Port Congestion Analysis: Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia main hubs Maritime Chokepoints Tighten, Global Supply Chain Risk Rises For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Middle East war Truck trade: Hybrid routes provide Hormuz alternatives for containers, fertilizers Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Jeremy Domballe Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

Agentic AI can move supply chains from reactive "triage" to smarter, faster decision-making. In this episode of The Decisive, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Brendan Neary joins host Kristen Hallam to unpack today's biggest supply-chain pain points—volatility, complexity, and constant disruption driven by forces like weather, policy shifts, and geopolitics—and why risk mitigation has become a daily mandate for procurement and supply-chain leaders. You'll hear how agentic AI—autonomous systems powered by large language models—can help teams connect disparate data, reason through scenarios, and take action with minimal supervision, turning raw information into practical workflows and recommendations. The conversation dives into data-driven procurement and sourcing, including how organizations can use intelligence to benchmark negotiations, identify alternate suppliers, and assess country and credit risk—while addressing the real-world deployment hurdles of data quality, interoperability, and making insights truly consumable for decision-makers. Listen now to gain insight into how agentic AI can transform supply chain management. Click here to register for TPM26, the world's largest container shipping conference. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Supply chain certainty, rather than price, will shape shipping in 2026 Age of Agility: Corporate Supply Chain Strategy Themes in 2026 Top 10 Economic Insights 2026 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Egypt opens new semiautomated Red Sea terminal as Suez traffic grows Global trade outlook and supply chains 2026: The age of agility Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Brendan Neary Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

The US Federal Reserve is always in the spotlight, and that spotlight is brighter than ever in 2026. In this episode of The Decisive, economist Lawrence Nelson, our resident Fed expert at S&P Global Market Intelligence, breaks down why the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at its January meeting, and what "sticky" inflation could mean for the first part of the year. We also examine the leadership uncertainty ahead of Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ending in May, including how a US Justice Department investigation could complicate the transition—without necessarily changing the Fed's data-driven approach to monetary policy. The episode offers a quick refresher on the Fed's dual mandate, the key indicators policymakers watch, and how disruptions—such as last year's government shutdown—can impact the data flow the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) relies on when setting rates. Listen now to learn more about what our Fed expert is watching in January and beyond, and gain insights to guide your business decisions in the year ahead. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Listen: The Decisive | Episode 13 - How US Monetary Policy Works Top 10 Economic Insights 2026 The Age of Agility: Key Themes for 2026 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Weekly Economic Commentary Inflation indications Bubble trouble: Lessons from the dotcom days Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Lawrence Nelson Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam engages in an insightful discussion with Ken Wattret, Vice President of Global Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about the critical yet often overlooked topic of public debt. Kristen and Ken explore the significant rise in public sector debt-to-GDP ratios since the mid-2000s, driven by adverse economic shocks, including the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Ken explains the persistent challenges of high government budget deficits, the political reluctance to implement fiscal changes, and the implications of rising sovereign yields on economic growth. Ken discusses how these fiscal fragilities impact businesses and consumers, the potential for crowding out private sector investment, and the risks of triggering another economic shock. Listen now for a thought-provoking conversation that highlights the complexities of fiscal policy in today's economic landscape. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: The Age of Agility: Key Themes for 2026 Top 10 Economic Insights 2026 Fiscal fragilities: Dealing with high debt For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Fiscal fragilities: Dealing with high debt 2026: The age of agility Inflation indications Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Ken Wattret Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun