Deploy now or wait for Deep Value? (March 2026 Cycle Update)
From The DeFi Report by Michael Nadeau
March 4, 2026 · 35 min · Episode 9
About this episode
Mike and Ryan discuss Bitcoin's current market cycle and investment strategies regarding fair and deep value.
Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s cycle awareness signals now that BTC has hit “fair value.” Using long-term holder supply in profit, MVRV, and the 200-week moving average, they compare today’s setup to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets and show how much returns changed when investors waited for “deep value.” Then they get practical on portfolio management: deploy now vs wait, how much cash to keep, and why Mike just made a second BTC buy while staying ready for a potential $50K to $55K scare. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 2:24 The Tension of Deployment 3:46 Market Positioning Updates 4:24 Cycle Awareness Indicators 7:17 The Impact of Fair vs. Deep Value 11:44 Market Value to Realized Value 15:49 Understanding the 200-Week Moving Average 18:48 Fair Value vs. Deep Value 20:21 Strategy for Navigating Uncertainty 24:26 Timing & Expectations for Deep Value 28:35 Managing Deployment Tensions 33:17 Closing &…
People in this episode
Host: Mike
Guest: Ryan
Topics covered
- Bitcoin cycle analysis
- market positioning
- portfolio management
- fair value vs deep value
- investment strategy
- long-term holder supply
Keywords
- Bitcoin
- fair value
- deep value
- portfolio management
- market analysis
- MVRV
- 200-week moving average
- investment strategy
Sponsors
GALAXY
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: THE DEFI REPORT
Products: Bitcoin
More episodes of The DeFi Report
- Has BTC Entered the "Buy Zone?" · June 10, 2026 · 53 min
- Bitcoin’s $60K Test Just Got More Serious · June 3, 2026 · 37 min
- Bitcoin’s Unfinished Pain & Altcoin Hype or Head Fake? · May 27, 2026 · 43 min
- Signs of a Cycle Bottom? · May 20, 2026 · 38 min
- Momentum is slowing as macro risks are rising · May 13, 2026 · 34 min
- Are we still in a bear market rally? · May 6, 2026 · 35 min
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