#360 Michael Howell: We've Hit An Inflection Point — We're In The Speculation Phase And Turbulence Is Coming For Markets
About this episode
Michael Howell discusses the current state of global liquidity and market speculation, highlighting economic trends and potential turbulence ahead.
Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, returns seven months after his last appearance to update his Global Liquidity call. The peak he flagged for Q3 2025 has held, and the cycle now points to a trough in 2027. Despite the Iran conflict and market volatility, Michael argues the world economy is actually holding up better than the media suggests — but that's almost the problem, because money flowing into the real economy is draining it from financial markets. He explains why the current rally is phoney, why bond term premia falling is actually a flight to safety signal not a selloff, and why we're in the Speculation phase — where economies feel strongest right before things get difficult. He walks through his full asset allocation traffic light system, the debt liquidity nexus, why the Fed and Treasury may be secretly targeting the MOVE index to protect the basis trade and collateral system, the COVID-era debt maturity wall now coming due, and why raising interest rates in today's world may actually be stimulative — not contractionary — because the government is the biggest borrower…
More episodes of The Julia La Roche Show
- #362 Chris Whalen: DOJ Drops Powell Probe — "Trump Could Be Attacking Warsh By Thanksgiving," Stagflation Is the Base Case, The Real Private Credit Risk, & Why Distressed Real Estate Is The Next Trade
- #361 Dr. Mark Thornton: We're on the Highway to Hyperinflation
- #360 Chris Whalen: Even If We Cut a Deal Today Inflation Is Not Behind Us
- #359 Chris Whalen: No Vision of Victory in Iran, Housing Has Peaked (For Now) & Time To Buy Gold
- #358 Danielle DiMartino Booth: The Fed Knows the Data Is Broken, Private Credit Is Contagious, and Nobody Is Fighting for American Families
- #357 Henrik Zeberg: "We Have Not Seen The Top Yet" — Why The Nasdaq Could Rally 30%
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