The Julia La Roche Show

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing⁠Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome back 00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses” 02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing? 03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war 07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path? 08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again 09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices 11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference 13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected 15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor 17:13 Will the Fed hike before the midterms? Warsh, Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court 18:57 The mood in mortgage: layoffs and a tougher 2027 20:36 Is there a bull case for United Wholesale Mortgage? 21:58 Bank earnings: JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s $1.5B fine 24:36 The AI reset and circular finance 26:59 Viewer question: banks holding low-rate COVID mortgages 29:55 Viewer question: the outlook for Annaly 31:34 What Whalen is watching next The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to break down why affordability, the economy and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defensive, and why a Democratic Congress could mean two years of investigations and a tougher regulatory climate for markets. Ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association annual in Chicago, Chris says the mortgage business is facing a “funeral,” with volumes and profits down, headcount still bloated from COVID, and plenty of firms quietly for sale. He explains why inflation and soaring construction costs are keeping home prices supported despite 7%+ mortgage rates, and why he’s pushing back on Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call. In Chris’s view, the federal deficit nobody in Washington or at the Fed wants to discuss is the biggest force behind higher long-term yields. He also covers the narrow, AI-driven stock market, stalled bank stocks, and viewer questions on capital gains taxes, home prices and whether energy stocks still make sense if the Iran war ends.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing⁠Timestamps:00:00 – Intro00:49 – Midterms less than a month out: how Trump has hurt GOP chances03:11 – Affordability is still the No. 1 issue04:33 – MBA Annual in Chicago: firms quietly up for sale07:35 – How much downside is left in housing if rates hold?09:06 – Replacement cost vs. market value, and why builders are pulling back10:30 – Housing outlook: still a seller’s market11:59 – Why Chris disagrees with Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call14:01 – What’s really pushing the 10-year higher: the Treasury buyback misstep15:42 – Why the Fed won’t talk about the deficit18:33 – Are we headed for a debt reset or “Jubilee”?19:40 – Record S&P highs vs. AI bubble fears23:05 – Why financials are “dead in the water”24:26 – The mortgage industry “funeral”: downsizing and consolidation26:27 – Viewer Q: Where are mortgage rates and home prices headed?28:55 – Viewer Q: Should Congress hike capital gains taxes?30:50 – Viewer Q: Should you wait to buy energy until the Iran war ends?33:58 – What Chris is watching next weekThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Is private credit the next 2008? Nick Nemeth, author and publisher of Mispriced Assets, joins Julia La Roche to explain why he sees systemic risk building in private credit, and why the real danger may sit inside life insurers' $10 trillion balance sheets. Nick explains how Dodd-Frank pushed risk out of the banks and into asset-manager-owned insurers like Athene. He says defaults are already running above 2008 levels, AAA-rated CLOs may not be as safe as advertised, and opaque Level 3 marks and 20–30x leverage could hide big losses. He also covers what this means for annuity holders, why regulators are falling short, his public fight over Cliffwater, how contagion could spread through reinsurance, and whether the next bailout could be big enough without breaking the dollar. He ends with bold 12-month predictions, including AAA CLO defaults, an insurance industry shakeout, and Kevin Warsh's first real test at the Fed.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Substack: https://mispricedassets.substack.com/X: https://x.com/NickNemo17Timestamps:0:00 Credit stress before the Iran War0:23 Welcome Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets1:07 Macro view: a highly levered system4:20 Money printing, inflation and the dollar7:00 Private credit defaults are rising10:23 Rising yields: defaults above 2008 levels11:46 Why this is systemic, and how it compares to 200814:21 AAA CLOs "safer than the U.S. government"?17:28 How we got here: Dodd-Frank pushed risk outside the banks19:33 The insurance connection26:30 Is your annuity safe?27:18 Are regulators asleep?29:25 Nick's biggest worry: bad marks and extreme leverage34:42 Ratings agencies and the Cliffwater fight39:33 The fix: mark-to-market and transparency40:58 How credit contagion could spread46:49 Why isn't the market down 20%?50:52 12-month predictions: AAA CLO defaults and an insurance shakeout53:09 Kevin Warsh's first test55:23 Where to find NickThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are managing the problem rather than solving it, and a market break or crisis could give the Fed cover to restart money printing. He describes the US as merging onto the "highway to hyperinflation," draws on historical cases from Revolutionary France to Weimar Germany, and closes with why he expects hard assets and commodities to outperform financial assets over the next decade.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/LinksX: https://x.com/DrMarkThorntonFree Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspxMises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thorntonTimestamps: 0:00 Intro: Why bonds are the big worry0:43 Big picture: 10- and 30-year yields at 25-year highs4:24 Are we in a new higher-rate regime?11:48 Wartime deficits in "good times"18:21 Who wins and who loses from easy money20:25 Young people, housing, and the K-shaped economy24:02 Food, energy, and the Persian Gulf conflict28:10 Are we on the on-ramp to hyperinflation?34:03 Fed rate hikes: more coming, and what's next39:27 No consequences: the "magic checkbook"47:28 How to protect yourself: hard assets51:28 Where to find Dr. Thornton's work

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing⁠Timestamps:0:00 – Preview0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5%2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake"16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts?24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall?30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies31:25 – Wrap-upThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, joins Julia in studio as the 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5% and the Fed hikes rates. George says his call is "rotation, not recession." He's passionately bearish on tech and consumer discretionary and wildly bullish on gold and energy, which have been on fire this year. He argues the bond market is driving everything: runaway deficits and the AI capex boom are pushing up the global cost of capital. In his view, today's rates aren't abnormal; the long era of depressed rates was. He gives a pointed critique of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempts to suppress yields and explains why the Fed follows the market rather than leading it. He also makes the case that the real bubble is in earnings, not valuations. The conversation covers private credit, the housing correction, $40 trillion in debt, and the money illusion of pricing assets in dollars rather than gold. George explains why he thinks rates and oil keep rising until the market breaks, and why the risk-reward favors gold, energy, and cash over the traditional 60/40 portfolio.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenobleTimestamps: 0:00 Intro1:12 Big picture: "weeks where decades happen" as the 10-year breaks 5%2:23 "R is for rotation, not recession"5:18 How high can rates go? Why the ultra-low-rate era was the abnormal one8:28 Why we're in a dangerous phase of the market11:46 Why rotation comes before recession: deficits are force-feeding the economy12:57 Passionately bearish on consumer, wildly bullish on gold and energy13:31 George's critique of Scott Bessent, plus lessons from Soros vs. the Bank of England16:45 "I am the house": Bessent, hubris, and Mr. Market20:18 $40 trillion in debt and "banana republic" behavior21:48 Midterm elections and what a sweep could mean for markets22:20 The ticking clock in private credit and private equity23:17 The Fed's rate hike: Warsh, word salad, and why the Fed follows the market28:07 The real bubble isn't valuations, it's earnings30:25 The housing correction is already happening31:11 Money illusion: the S&P and bonds priced in gold, not "American pesos"35:35 What "the market breaks" actually looks like38:44 How George is positioned: gold, energy, cash, and picking stocks39:17 Closing thoughts

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Intro0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge5:37 Fed projections: 2.5% core PCE, 4.1% unemployment7:02 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals8:26 Labor market already in recessionary territory10:12 Warsh is "enamored with his narrative"10:53 The household squeeze: gas, utilities, beef to chicken11:47 Even the top of the K is losing confidence12:19 AI was 100% of GDP growth, and real AI investment has turned13:20 Payroll data quirks: the World Cup hiring surge14:06 Sponsor: Monetary Metals15:33 Trump's reaction: 10-year at 5.01%, stocks down16:05 Scott Bessent isn't finished17:04 Warsh gives Bessent the Heisman17:41 10-year at a 19-year high, and the Fed was easing last time18:14 What the Fed is getting wrong: August's one-off inflation blips20:03 Core PCE is coming down, plus BEA methodology changes20:56 Bankruptcy lawyers are making bank: record filings22:23 Do rate hikes even work? Cash-out refis and credit tightening23:29 The stock market isn't the economy: airlines and the top of the K25:16 Is Warsh chasing the wrong monkey on his back?25:47 Other worries: PE bankruptcies, rogue AI agents, socialism27:22 Bernanke's 2% target and post-COVID stimulus28:31 The risk keeping her up at night: peak AI investment29:49 Hyperscaler accounting games and the "E" in P/E31:40 What's making her optimistic33:25 Wrap-up

The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a summer vacation with a blunt read on the fall ahead: affordability — fuel, housing, food — has already decided the midterms, and the Iran conflict plus the Russia-Ukraine war have created a shortage not just of crude but of refined products, with refinery maintenance season and the shift to heating oil set to push prices higher still. He calls $100 oil and a 5% 10-year Treasury the new normal, argues Scott Bessent's buyback strategy has failed, and expects a quarter-point hike next week while raising the more unsettling question: what happens if the Fed raises short rates and the long end goes up anyway? On gold, Whalen is still accumulating, sees $6,000–$7,000 only after a fiscal catalyst like a bad Treasury auction, and points to Shanghai's gold-linked clearing system and Russia's 100-ton sale to China as evidence of where physical demand really lives. He also answers viewer questions on the exodus at Fannie Mae, the flawed data behind credit scores, how to actually save in gold, why he owns only Flagstar and Schwab, and warns that Florida's home price correction is coming for the rest of the country next year.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 – Welcome back: summer's over, a lot to catch up on0:50 – Energy prices and the midterms: decided at the pump?1:13 – Affordability is the story: diesel, heating oil, Europe's supply crisis2:51 – The $5,000 "Trump dividend" and buying votes4:13 – What nobody in Washington will say about insolvency5:00 – FDICIA, continuing resolutions, and a Congress that can't say no6:34 – Oil near $100: does it get worse from here?7:33 – Rates "going back to normal" after 15 years of Fed subsidy9:24 – Calling 5% on the 10-year — and Bessent's failed buyback strategy10:29 – Warsh rules out QE, spreads tighten anyway11:57 – Why banks are suddenly buying multifamily12:58 – Is 5% a stop along the way or the destination?14:31 – What Chris expects from the Fed next week15:06 – The big question: what if the Fed has lost the long end?16:11 – What losing control of long rates would actually signal17:24 – Gold with David Kotok, and why it's not a trading vehicle18:28 – Tom McClellan on the oil–gold relationship (with a 16-month lag)20:09 – A quiet year: banks, AI trade, and boring winners21:17 – What takes gold from $4–5K to $6–7K22:00 – Russia sells 100 tons of gold to China22:53 – Is the dollar really in decline? CIPS, Shanghai, and sanctions24:12 – How high can diesel and Brent go this winter?25:30 – Iran, the Houthis, and the Red Sea26:59 – Viewer Q: What's happening inside Fannie Mae?28:30 – Pulte, VantageScore, and the bad-data problem in credit scoring29:39 – Viewer Q: How do you actually save in gold?30:45 – Florida home prices are falling — "Misery on the Eights"31:31 – Viewer Q: The big money center banks32:47 – Viewer Q: Book recommendations and the gold book33:23 – Closing thoughts: an age of instabilityThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.