CEOs Gamble When They Plan for Just One Future
From The So What from BCG by Boston Consulting Group BCG
May 20, 2026 · 17 min · Episode 118
About this episode
Nikolaus Lang discusses the importance of flexibility in planning for multiple future scenarios to navigate uncertainty effectively.
Navigating uncertainty means one thing: flexibility beats prediction. Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, looks 25 years into the future, breaking down what four plausible scenarios mean for GDP growth, work hours, and defense spending. He explains what CEOs can do today to prepare for the faraway future. You’ll Learn: How scenarios connect uncertainty to revenue, risk, and strategy How to stress-test your strategy with data-driven foresight What separates resilient companies from fragile ones How to identify no-regret moves — from supply chain resilience to AI readiness to talent transformation Learn More: Nikolaus Lang: https://on.bcg.com/43abruY Beyond Tomorrow: Four Scenarios for the World of 2050: https://on.bcg.com/49RMhVF Latest Thinking From the BCG Henderson Institute: https://on.bcg.com/4uHtDbc Chapters: (00:00) Why Planning for One Future Won’t Work (01:04) The Benefit of Planning for Plausible Futures (03:19) Should You Ignore Extreme Scenarios? (04:41) Future #1: AI Abundance (05:34) Future #2: Battling Blocs (06:09) Future #3: Climate Coalition (06:45) Future #4: Digital Darwinism (07:30) What KPIs Help Predict the Future? (09:09) What…
People in this episode
Guest: Nikolaus Lang
Topics covered
- uncertainty
- future planning
- CEO strategy
- economic scenarios
- business resilience
Keywords
- future scenarios
- GDP growth
- defense spending
- AI readiness
- talent transformation
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: BCG Henderson Institute, Boston Consulting Group
Books & works: Beyond Tomorrow: Four Scenarios for the World of 2050
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