Episode 014: Iran blockade

About this episode

The episode discusses the strategic direction of the Iran conflict and its implications for markets following the collapse of US-Iran peace talks.

A detailed and at times sharply contested discussion on the strategic direction of the Iran conflict following the collapse of US-Iran peace talks and what it means for markets (recorded at noon London time on 13 April). In this episode, Mark and I analyse the shift from an historically intense air campaign to a US-led maritime interdiction strategy. While we both agree that the US is attempting a novel “sovereignty-denial” strategy for regime change, we differ on how much control the US will have over the intensity of the conflict from here. We discuss how the US is shifting responsibilities to allies, how they are responding, and how the US midterm elections affect the Trump Administration’s calculus. We then turn to the economic and market implications. While we find much to agree on in terms of relative effects, we differ over the implications for the dollar. Key themes: * The shift from a large scale bombing campaign to a maritime conflict focused on securing the Persian Gulf and maintaining open trade routes * The US attempt to reframe the conflict and transfer responsibility to allies through a coordinated international presence at sea * The ceasefire as a tactical pause…

People in this episode

Host: Marvin Barth

Guest: Mark

Topics covered

• Iran conflict
• US foreign policy
• maritime strategy
• economic implications
• market analysis
• regime change

Keywords

• Iran blockade
• US-Iran relations
• maritime interdiction
• economic impact
• Trump Administration
• sovereignty-denial strategy
• market implications
• US allies
• conflict escalation

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Trump Administration

Places: Iran, US, Persian Gulf

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• Episode 018: Fed regime change · June 10, 2026 · 1h 2m
• Episode 017: "Mark"ing to market: Iran & China views · May 27, 2026 · 57 min
• Episode 016: Fed independence · May 13, 2026 · 30 min
• Episode 015: US & Fed outlook with Danny Dayan · April 29, 2026 · 1h 4m
• Episode 013: Iran strikes credit with Zoso Davies · April 1, 2026 · 56 min
• Episode 012: Doomberg - Strategic implications of the Iran war · March 19, 2026 · 1h 0m