Episode 015: US & Fed outlook with Danny Dayan

About this episode

Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington discuss inflation and monetary policy with guest Danny Dayen, focusing on the Federal Reserve's potential policy errors and economic implications.

In this episode of Thematic Edge , Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington are joined by Danny Dayen for a wide ranging debate on inflation, monetary policy, and whether the Federal Reserve is now behind the curve. The discussion begins from an unusual point of agreement. Both Marvin and Danny argue the Fed has committed a sequence of policy errors that risks overheating the US economy and reigniting inflation. But from there, important differences emerge, especially over the likely conduct of a Warsh Fed, the role of balance sheet policy, and whether supply shocks now require an explicitly hawkish monetary response. The conversation explores inflation expectations, neutral rates, oil shocks, financial conditions and whether repeated supply disruptions have shifted the global inflation regime itself. It is also a rare compare and contrast episode, with Mark pressing both Danny and Marvin on where they agree, where they diverge, and what markets may be missing. Key Themes 1. Fed policy errors and the overheat thesis Why both guests believe rates are below neutral, why inflation risks may be underestimated, and why passive easing may now be worsening the problem. 2. Inflation expectations…

People in this episode

Host: Marvin Barth

Guest: Danny Dayen

Topics covered

• inflation
• monetary policy
• Federal Reserve
• economic overheating
• supply shocks

Keywords

• inflation
• monetary policy
• Federal Reserve
• supply shocks
• economic overheating

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Federal Reserve

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