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Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington discuss the implications of the European Central Bank's retreat in Sintra and the shift in global central bank philosophy led by Kevin Warsh's rejection of forward guidance.

In episode 020 of Thematic Edge , Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington consider the broader implications of the European Central Bank’s retreat in Sintra, Portugal where there seemed to be shift in global central bank philosophy led by new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and his drive to end the practice of forward guidance. Marvin and Mark discuss what the end of forward guidance means for near-term Fed policy and markets, and how Sintra may have helped Chairman Warsh push a rate hike back home. They also discuss how forward guidance and increasingly activist monetary policy changed market behavior — for the worse — and what the withdrawal symptoms are likely to be. The conversation concludes with the implications for interest rates, volatility, and the US dollar versus both G10 and emerging market currencies. Key themes * Why the Sintra conference suggested a global shift back towards traditional central banking. * Kevin Warsh’s rejection of forward guidance and what it means for markets. * How forward guidance evolved from an emergency tool into permanent policy. * Why suppressing volatility ultimately encouraged excessive leverage. * The relationship between credibility, optionality and…

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