Optimistic but On Edge: What NFIB’s Indexes Say About Small Business in 2026
About this episode
The episode discusses the cautious optimism among small business owners as analyzed through NFIB's indexes for 2026.
Small business owners are feeling cautiously hopeful, but far from settled. In this episode of THRIVE, host Gene Marks sits down with Holly Wade and Peter Hansen from the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) to break down what their three signature indexes — Optimism, Uncertainty, and Employment — are really telling us about small business in 2026. From interest rates to federal policy shifts, find out why confidence is up, but small business owners are still holding their breath. Simplify your business operations: Visit paychex.com/MeetPaychex to learn how Paychex can handle your HR and payroll so you can focus on what counts. Have a topic idea? Share it at https://payx.me/thrivetopics Topics include:00:00 – Episode preview and guest introduction01:18 – Peter’s background and NFIB podcast overview04:06 – Holly’s background and NFIB Research Center history05:25 – NFIB Indexes: Optimism, Uncertainty & Employment10:24 – Dealing with Bias: Optimism, politics & perspective14:50 – NFIB survey demographics21:41 – New NFIB Employment Index: What and why25:21 – Reconciling NFIB data and survey challenges29:47 – Current read on optimism and uncertainty33:03 – Wrap…
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