14% for Tech. 1% for Everyone Else | The Weekly Wrap – 3/14/2026

About this episode

The episode discusses key insights from the week regarding market dynamics influenced by AI, defense spending, and macroeconomic changes.

In this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities. Topics Covered • Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world • How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes • Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption • The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change • Jim Paulsen’s framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy…

Topics covered

• AI disruption
• defense spending
• macro policy shifts
• investing humility
• software disruption
• economic divergence
• long-term trends

Keywords

• investing
• AI
• defense spending
• market trends
• software
• economic growth
• humility

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Excess Returns

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