The S&P 500 is Just 46 Stocks. 89% of the Economy is Flatlining | What We Learned This Week

The S&P 500 is Just 46 Stocks. 89% of the Economy is Flatlining | What We Learned This Week

From Two Quants and a Financial Planner by Excess Returns

May 11, 2026 · 1h 7m · Season 1 · Episode 136

About this episode

The episode discusses insights on stock picking, inflation, AI's impact on software, and the concentration of the S&P 500.

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at what Ian Cassel, Chris Mayer, Jim Paulsen and Elena Khoziaeva can teach investors about stock picking skill, inflation risk, AI, software moats, small caps and market concentration. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on why elite investors can be wrong almost half the time, why today may not be the 1970s or the 1990s, how AI is affecting software businesses, and why the S&P 500 may be far less diversified than investors think. Topics Covered Why great stock pickers can be right only 49% of the time and still generate exceptional returns The role of outliers, magnitude and position sizing in long-term investing success Jim Paulsen’s argument that today’s inflation backdrop is very different from the 1970s How supply shocks, tariffs, commodities and labor force growth shape the inflation outlook Bridgeway’s research on redefining the small-cap premium by excluding IPOs and fallen large caps Why vertical market software may be more resilient to AI disruption than horizontal software How the AI boom and new era economy are masking weakness in the rest of the economy Why the S&P 500 may effectively be driven by fewer…

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Hosts: Jack Forehand, Matt Zeigler

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