UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Crashing economies'

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Crashing economies'

May 1, 2026 · 3 min

About this episode

The episode discusses the implications of the US economy on global situations, particularly in relation to Iran and household savings rates.

US President Trump vowed to keep the (US) Hormuz blockade, declaring the Iranian economy was “crashing,” which would force negotiations. Investors are more inclined to look at the state of the US economy as determining how the situation evolves. In the Wile E Coyote scenario, the US is off the edge of the cliff but happily running on thin air. Thursday’s data showed household savings rates have fallen from 5.1% to 3.6% of disposable income during this administration, which is how consumers afford the affordability crisis. This decline can sustain consumption for some time, but not indefinitely.

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