UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Having recently attended the UBS Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong, Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, stops by the studio to share reflections and takeaways. We cover some key points of interest from the conference, including how factors such as geopolitics and AI are influencing the region. Plus, how the overall experience reshaped Alejo’s investment views. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A wide-ranging conversation on the landscape for private credit investing, including performance drivers, risk considerations, and what’s important for investors to focus on. Featured are Dan Oneglia, Global CIO of Liquid Credit Strategies, CEO and Co-CIO of Blackstone Multi-Asset Credit & Income Fund with Blackstone, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office.

An introduction to what The Great Wealth Transfer is, the implications of immense wealth changing hands, and how wealth managers must adapt to fulfill the needs and preferences of future wealth holders. Over a multiple part series of episodes, Marianna Mamou, Head of Advice Beyond Investing with the UBS Chief Investment Office, will break down these topics further. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There has been a heated exchange over the situation in the Gulf this weekend. However, US Vice President Vance is in Switzerland to talk with Iranian officials. There have been cautiously positive statements from Iran on the talks, and given market perceptions of the balance of power, that fact (plus the inherent market bias to optimism) has produced lower oil prices.

Shane drops by to reflect on the wide range of topics covered during this week’s G-7 summit in France, including renewed efforts by leaders to end the Russia-Ukraine war. We also discuss the fourteen-point plan included within the agreed to US-Iran memorandum of understanding, along with what the months ahead might have in store. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve meeting produced a hawkish impression, with a strong focus on fighting inflation. That may put Fed Chair Warsh at odds with US President Trump, as the Fed’s own research suggested US tariffs have added to inflation. Near-term policy changes seem unlikely, given the number of proposed committees Warsh is establishing.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged today. The Bank of Japan started with an accommodative stance, and has moved toward neutral. The European Central Bank started with a neutral stance, and unnecessarily moved toward a restrictive policy. The Fed started the year with a mildly restrictive policy, and there is no necessity for change.

As expected, the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1%, a level last seen in the distance past of 1995. This was a different move from the recent ECB policy error—unlike Europe, Japan began the year with an accommodative monetary stance. The rate increase is part of a process of returning to neutral, and is broadly considered appropriate.

The announcement of an Iran-US deal (to be signed on Friday) has supported risk markets and allowed oil prices to fall moderately. The deal comes before strategic petroleum reserves were exhausted, limiting the economic damage from the war. Iran will not toll shipping through Hormuz for 60 days—after that it is not clear, but tolls are not likely to be a major economic cost.

We discuss the factors that have led to a pronounced repricing of US interest rates, an outlook for monetary policy, and CIO’s current fixed income positioning recommendations. Plus, a look at the lending that is powering AI investment, and the implications to credit markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy