UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Idle speculation'

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Idle speculation'

May 27, 2026 · 3 min

About this episode

Paul Donovan discusses the impact of limited economic information on market speculation and recent geopolitical events.

The embarrassing lack of economic information leaves markets prey to idle speculation, rather than the pure and objective guidance that economists can offer. Yesterday’s exchange of fire between Iran and the US has not had a major market impact—it fits with Iran’s narrative on negotiations (which is what markets have priced), and keeps the optimism bias more or less intact.

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