2026 Economic Forecast, Ep #078

About this episode

The episode features a discussion on the 2026 economic outlook with insights from Julia C. Hermann on macro trends and investment strategies.

Upthinking Finance™ is now trademarked We welcome back Julia C. Hermann, Global Market Strategist at New York Life Investments, for a wide-ranging conversation on the 2026 economic outlook. We’re discussing the key macro trends shaping the future, from the ongoing AI boom and its comparison to the dot-com era, to the Federal Reserve's policy moves, the impact of tariffs and inflation, and the fast-evolving global geopolitical landscape. Julia offers a balanced perspective, exploring why the current environment may feel at odds with headlines about global chaos, and how investors can think about risk, portfolio construction, and opportunities in this unique moment. The discussion covers everything from the intricacies of bond-market risks and Fed independence to energy markets, Japan’s financial experiment, and the emerging role of China on the world stage. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... 03:34 Navigating global economic uncertainty. 07:35 AI investment and tax incentives. 11:17 Fed independence and Powell's influence. 18:30 Inflation driven by housing costs. 26:09 Global economies wrestle with debt. 27:59 Japan's tenuous reflation experiment. 33:01…

People in this episode

Host: Emerson Fersch

Guest: Julia C. Hermann

Topics covered

• economic outlook
• AI investment
• Federal Reserve policy
• global geopolitical landscape
• portfolio construction
• inflation
• bond-market risks

Keywords

• economic forecast
• AI boom
• Federal Reserve
• inflation
• global economy
• portfolio risk
• China
• Japan
• geopolitical landscape

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: New York Life Investments

Places: China, Japan

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